本文主要研究内容
作者李丰耘（2019）在《中国天然气发电项目的经济性研究》一文中研究指出：在“十三五”期间,绿色能源开发利用是中国一直努力实现的首要任务。中国已经逐渐意识到天然气作为一种低碳能源,是目前最为符合中国能源规划和发展的,并将在能源转型中发挥关键作用。但就目前中国天然气发电行业的规模来看,其发展速度远远低于预期。本文通过对世界典型天然气利用度较高的国家进行分析,发现影响天然气发展的关键因素是资源禀赋和价格。对国内、外进口天然气资源供给进行综合分析,揭示了未来中国天然气存在供过于求的发展趋势。鉴于较高的对外依存度,中国自2013年以来对天然气价格进行了一系列改革,这对包括发电在内的重要天然气消费行业产生了负面影响。通过平准化电力成本模型(LCOE),我们发现在现行的天然气供应结构和价格水平下,公用事业燃气发电的经济仍将无利可图,而冷热电联产(CCHP)仅在沿海发达地区上可行。如果继续发展下去,不仅会给燃气电力行业带来灾难性后果,同时也会对上游供应行业造成损害,更重要的是会阻碍能源转型。本文总结了该论文对定价机制改革,发展国内非常规天然气和燃气轮机研发的政策含义。本文是在中国急切需要能源转型和低碳环保的背景下,通过对天然气产业链上游及下游各个关键环节分析预测的基础上,测算天然气发电的经济性。通过统计发现,未来天然气作为低碳环保能源是目前最适合中国国情的能源,将在中国未来能源发展过程中扮演举足轻重的角色,而天然气发电行业将是天然气能否快速发展的关键点。本文通过对国外典型天然气发达国家的研究总结,发现一个国家天然气产业的快速发展期的动力更多的是来自于天然气发电行业来带动,通过总结归纳发现影响天然气发电行业经济性的关键因素共有四个,结合中国具体客观情况这样的结果同样适用,本文将挑选两个与经济性关系最为密切的关键性因素进行分析,在得到充分可靠并且合理的结论的基础上,在对天然气发电项目的经济性进行讨论,保证最后的政策性建议更加可靠。天然气上游市场的能源供应、天然气价格和下游市场实际上是紧密联系的。首先对中国目前现有的资源禀赋进行分析,并中国天然气上游市场的供应能力进行合理的分析和预测,在对供应能力充分预估之后,再去剖析中国天然气供应的结构,目前,中国上游市场中常规天然气开采难度较大,而非常规天然气开采成本且又较为昂贵,尤其像页岩气的开发技术还处在研究阶段,面对国内下游市场的需求,上游企业更多的解决方案是依靠进口天然气来满足,这样的供应结构对中国的天然气交易属性影响较大。中国从2010年开始逐步推进和实施天然气价格体系的改革,较大的气价波动对下游天然气市场产生了巨大的影响,尤其是工业企业和发电企业受到的影响最为严重,这也是中国气电项目虽然在政策方面一直处于利好状态,但中国相当一部分的气电项目的推进却一而再、再而三的搁浅,微薄的利润已经成为气电项目一直无法达到“十三五规划”的建设规模。在对气电项目可能产生较大影响的几类关键性因素的进行分析的基础上,运用LCOE模型,在集中式热电联供(包括调峰)以及分布式冷热电联产的两种情境下,计算天然气发电项目的度电成本,从项目建设开始一直到运营、维护阶段为止,对项目的全寿命周期的成本进行计算,将全国进行区域的划分,分别对比当地上网电价,并利用敏感性分析的方法找出不同情境下影响天然气发电项目发电成本的最主要的几个因素。最后,结合本文各个章节得到的天然气整体产业链不同环节所存在的问题提出切实可行的政策建议。
Abstract
zai “shi san wu ”ji jian ,lu se neng yuan kai fa li yong shi zhong guo yi zhi nu li shi xian de shou yao ren wu 。zhong guo yi jing zhu jian yi shi dao tian ran qi zuo wei yi chong di tan neng yuan ,shi mu qian zui wei fu ge zhong guo neng yuan gui hua he fa zhan de ,bing jiang zai neng yuan zhuai xing zhong fa hui guan jian zuo yong 。dan jiu mu qian zhong guo tian ran qi fa dian hang ye de gui mo lai kan ,ji fa zhan su du yuan yuan di yu yu ji 。ben wen tong guo dui shi jie dian xing tian ran qi li yong du jiao gao de guo jia jin hang fen xi ,fa xian ying xiang tian ran qi fa zhan de guan jian yin su shi zi yuan bing fu he jia ge 。dui guo nei 、wai jin kou tian ran qi zi yuan gong gei jin hang zeng ge fen xi ,jie shi le wei lai zhong guo tian ran qi cun zai gong guo yu qiu de fa zhan qu shi 。jian yu jiao gao de dui wai yi cun du ,zhong guo zi 2013nian yi lai dui tian ran qi jia ge jin hang le yi ji lie gai ge ,zhe dui bao gua fa dian zai nei de chong yao tian ran qi xiao fei hang ye chan sheng le fu mian ying xiang 。tong guo ping zhun hua dian li cheng ben mo xing (LCOE),wo men fa xian zai xian hang de tian ran qi gong ying jie gou he jia ge shui ping xia ,gong yong shi ye ran qi fa dian de jing ji reng jiang mo li ke tu ,er leng re dian lian chan (CCHP)jin zai yan hai fa da de ou shang ke hang 。ru guo ji xu fa zhan xia qu ,bu jin hui gei ran qi dian li hang ye dai lai zai nan xing hou guo ,tong shi ye hui dui shang you gong ying hang ye zao cheng sun hai ,geng chong yao de shi hui zu ai neng yuan zhuai xing 。ben wen zong jie le gai lun wen dui ding jia ji zhi gai ge ,fa zhan guo nei fei chang gui tian ran qi he ran qi lun ji yan fa de zheng ce han yi 。ben wen shi zai zhong guo ji qie xu yao neng yuan zhuai xing he di tan huan bao de bei jing xia ,tong guo dui tian ran qi chan ye lian shang you ji xia you ge ge guan jian huan jie fen xi yu ce de ji chu shang ,ce suan tian ran qi fa dian de jing ji xing 。tong guo tong ji fa xian ,wei lai tian ran qi zuo wei di tan huan bao neng yuan shi mu qian zui kuo ge zhong guo guo qing de neng yuan ,jiang zai zhong guo wei lai neng yuan fa zhan guo cheng zhong ban yan ju zu qing chong de jiao se ,er tian ran qi fa dian hang ye jiang shi tian ran qi neng fou kuai su fa zhan de guan jian dian 。ben wen tong guo dui guo wai dian xing tian ran qi fa da guo jia de yan jiu zong jie ,fa xian yi ge guo jia tian ran qi chan ye de kuai su fa zhan ji de dong li geng duo de shi lai zi yu tian ran qi fa dian hang ye lai dai dong ,tong guo zong jie gui na fa xian ying xiang tian ran qi fa dian hang ye jing ji xing de guan jian yin su gong you si ge ,jie ge zhong guo ju ti ke guan qing kuang zhe yang de jie guo tong yang kuo yong ,ben wen jiang tiao shua liang ge yu jing ji xing guan ji zui wei mi qie de guan jian xing yin su jin hang fen xi ,zai de dao chong fen ke kao bing ju ge li de jie lun de ji chu shang ,zai dui tian ran qi fa dian xiang mu de jing ji xing jin hang tao lun ,bao zheng zui hou de zheng ce xing jian yi geng jia ke kao 。tian ran qi shang you shi chang de neng yuan gong ying 、tian ran qi jia ge he xia you shi chang shi ji shang shi jin mi lian ji de 。shou xian dui zhong guo mu qian xian you de zi yuan bing fu jin hang fen xi ,bing zhong guo tian ran qi shang you shi chang de gong ying neng li jin hang ge li de fen xi he yu ce ,zai dui gong ying neng li chong fen yu gu zhi hou ,zai qu pou xi zhong guo tian ran qi gong ying de jie gou ,mu qian ,zhong guo shang you shi chang zhong chang gui tian ran qi kai cai nan du jiao da ,er fei chang gui tian ran qi kai cai cheng ben ju you jiao wei ang gui ,you ji xiang xie yan qi de kai fa ji shu hai chu zai yan jiu jie duan ,mian dui guo nei xia you shi chang de xu qiu ,shang you qi ye geng duo de jie jue fang an shi yi kao jin kou tian ran qi lai man zu ,zhe yang de gong ying jie gou dui zhong guo de tian ran qi jiao yi shu xing ying xiang jiao da 。zhong guo cong 2010nian kai shi zhu bu tui jin he shi shi tian ran qi jia ge ti ji de gai ge ,jiao da de qi jia bo dong dui xia you tian ran qi shi chang chan sheng le ju da de ying xiang ,you ji shi gong ye qi ye he fa dian qi ye shou dao de ying xiang zui wei yan chong ,zhe ye shi zhong guo qi dian xiang mu sui ran zai zheng ce fang mian yi zhi chu yu li hao zhuang tai ,dan zhong guo xiang dang yi bu fen de qi dian xiang mu de tui jin que yi er zai 、zai er san de ge jian ,wei bao de li run yi jing cheng wei qi dian xiang mu yi zhi mo fa da dao “shi san wu gui hua ”de jian she gui mo 。zai dui qi dian xiang mu ke neng chan sheng jiao da ying xiang de ji lei guan jian xing yin su de jin hang fen xi de ji chu shang ,yun yong LCOEmo xing ,zai ji zhong shi re dian lian gong (bao gua diao feng )yi ji fen bu shi leng re dian lian chan de liang chong qing jing xia ,ji suan tian ran qi fa dian xiang mu de du dian cheng ben ,cong xiang mu jian she kai shi yi zhi dao yun ying 、wei hu jie duan wei zhi ,dui xiang mu de quan shou ming zhou ji de cheng ben jin hang ji suan ,jiang quan guo jin hang ou yu de hua fen ,fen bie dui bi dang de shang wang dian jia ,bing li yong min gan xing fen xi de fang fa zhao chu bu tong qing jing xia ying xiang tian ran qi fa dian xiang mu fa dian cheng ben de zui zhu yao de ji ge yin su 。zui hou ,jie ge ben wen ge ge zhang jie de dao de tian ran qi zheng ti chan ye lian bu tong huan jie suo cun zai de wen ti di chu qie shi ke hang de zheng ce jian yi 。
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论文作者分别是来自华北电力大学(北京)的李丰耘，发表于刊物华北电力大学(北京)2019-10-28论文，是一篇关于天然气发电论文,行业分析论文,模型论文,华北电力大学(北京)2019-10-28论文的文章。本文可供学术参考使用，各位学者可以免费参考阅读下载，文章观点不代表本站观点，资料来自华北电力大学(北京)2019-10-28论文网站，若本站收录的文献无意侵犯了您的著作版权，请联系我们删除。
标签：天然气发电论文; 行业分析论文; 模型论文; 华北电力大学(北京)2019-10-28论文;