本文主要研究内容
作者吴楚樵（2019）在《江淮流域梅雨期气候对全球气候变暖的响应》一文中研究指出：在全球气候变暖背景下,中国江淮流域梅雨期的气候变化更加趋于复杂,为该地区气候预测增加了更多的不确定性因素。因此,研究江淮梅雨期气候对全球变暖的响应,对于认识近年来江淮梅雨的变化趋势、提高气候变化背景下的汛期预报以及制定防灾减灾政策等均有着深远意义。本文利用中国地面气温及降水日值数据集,分析了近几十年来江淮流域梅雨期的气温及降水变化;基于观测数据,评估了国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的模式模拟结果,对未来该地区梅雨期的气候变化进行了预测,并对江淮流域梅雨期气候变化的机理进行了探讨。得到的主要结论如下:（1）观测的江淮流域梅雨期气候对全球变暖的响应随着全球气候变暖,江淮流域梅雨期气候亦发生了相应的变化。气温呈现显著的增加趋势,降水亦发生了相应调整,在较暖年降水偏多,较冷年降水偏少。总体而言,梅雨期气温呈现明显的增加趋势(+0.40℃·（10a）-1),降水亦有相应的增加(+2.06mm·（10a）-1)。就空间分布而言,江淮流域梅雨期气温主要呈现由南向北逐渐降低的空间分布特征,沿长江一带的气温普遍偏高,在江淮流域西部存在低值区。降水总体也呈现由东南向西北逐渐减少的空间分布特征,沿长江一带的降水也普遍偏多。全球变暖后,江淮流域的各站点在梅雨期的平均气温与变暖前相比总体呈一致的上升趋势,且沿长江一带变化幅度更为明显。降水变化与气温类似,除江淮周边地区西北及东南部少数站点的降水呈减少趋势、且减少幅度相对较弱外,沿长江一带的变化幅度较为明显。（2）CMIP5模式模拟江淮流域气候变化的评估及未来预测22个CMIP5模式的集合平均对江淮流域梅雨期气候的平均变化趋势的空间分布模拟效果良好,较好地再现了江淮流域梅雨期气温及降水量的气候态分布特征,使用模式对未来江淮流域的梅雨期气候进行预估具有可行性。在未来全球进一步变暖的背景下,江淮流域梅雨期平均气温升高,降水量也进一步增加。且随着温室气体排放量的增加,降水的空间分布非均匀性也更为明显。两种排放情景下江淮流域的梅雨期气温及降水量相对现代而言都呈明显的上升趋势。其中气温的增强是整体性的,分布较为均匀。RCP8.5情景下多模式集合的气温变化速率(0.45℃·（10a）-1)高于RCP4.5情景(0.23℃·（10a）-1)。至二十一世纪末期,RCP4.5情景下江淮流域梅雨期气温相对现代而言平均增温2.20℃,RCP8.5情景下增温更为显著,达4.30℃。江淮流域梅雨期降水在RCP4.5情景下多模式集合变化速率(0.72mm·（10a）-1)略高于RCP8.5情景(0.51mm·（10a）-1),在RCP8.5情景下降水的空间分布非均匀性高于RCP4.5情景。且随着时间的推移,两种排放情景下降水的空间分布非均匀性都在加剧:江淮流域南部降水减少的同时,北部降水明显增加。（3）江淮流域梅雨期气候变化的机理探讨亚洲夏季风是影响江淮流域夏季降水最主要的环流系统,驱动着南海和孟加拉湾的水汽被输送至江淮流域,对江淮流域梅雨期降水有重要影响。在偏暖年,南亚夏季风减弱,水汽被输送至长江流域,与东亚夏季风输送的水汽在江淮流域汇合,使得江淮流域水汽异常充沛、气候偏湿;反之,水汽匮乏且气候偏干。南亚高压及西风急流的强弱及位置也与江淮流域的梅雨期降水有紧密联系:在偏暖年,当南亚高压增强且副热带西风急流位置偏南、偏强时,江淮流域普遍偏涝;反之,江淮流域普遍偏干。江淮流域的水汽主要由南亚季风的西风气流纬向输送而来,在偏暖年,南亚季风的纬向输送相对较强,该年相对偏湿;反之则偏干。江淮流域梅雨期气候与赤道中东太平洋海温有较显著的正相关关系。在典型的厄尔尼诺影响年,西北太平洋存在异常的反气旋环流,将大量水汽输送至江淮流域;在典型的拉尼娜影响年,北太平洋西部海温的正异常有利于水汽交汇于江淮流域东部,使得该地区夏季降水偏多。利用CMIP5海温均匀增加的模拟结果发现,海温的均匀增加将使江淮流域梅雨期气温整体增加,且增暖趋势由西向东递减;同时,降水亦发生相应增加,降水增加幅度由东向西递减,且年际变化幅度更为显著。这意味着在全球海温升高的情况下,江淮流域梅雨期的极端降水发生频次可能增多。
Abstract
zai quan qiu qi hou bian nuan bei jing xia ,zhong guo jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji de qi hou bian hua geng jia qu yu fu za ,wei gai de ou qi hou yu ce zeng jia le geng duo de bu que ding xing yin su 。yin ci ,yan jiu jiang huai mei yu ji qi hou dui quan qiu bian nuan de xiang ying ,dui yu ren shi jin nian lai jiang huai mei yu de bian hua qu shi 、di gao qi hou bian hua bei jing xia de xun ji yu bao yi ji zhi ding fang zai jian zai zheng ce deng jun you zhao shen yuan yi yi 。ben wen li yong zhong guo de mian qi wen ji jiang shui ri zhi shu ju ji ,fen xi le jin ji shi nian lai jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji de qi wen ji jiang shui bian hua ;ji yu guan ce shu ju ,ping gu le guo ji ou ge mo shi bi jiao ji hua di wu jie duan （CMIP5）de mo shi mo ni jie guo ,dui wei lai gai de ou mei yu ji de qi hou bian hua jin hang le yu ce ,bing dui jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi hou bian hua de ji li jin hang le tan tao 。de dao de zhu yao jie lun ru xia :（1）guan ce de jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi hou dui quan qiu bian nuan de xiang ying sui zhao quan qiu qi hou bian nuan ,jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi hou yi fa sheng le xiang ying de bian hua 。qi wen cheng xian xian zhe de zeng jia qu shi ,jiang shui yi fa sheng le xiang ying diao zheng ,zai jiao nuan nian jiang shui pian duo ,jiao leng nian jiang shui pian shao 。zong ti er yan ,mei yu ji qi wen cheng xian ming xian de zeng jia qu shi (+0.40℃·（10a）-1),jiang shui yi you xiang ying de zeng jia (+2.06mm·（10a）-1)。jiu kong jian fen bu er yan ,jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi wen zhu yao cheng xian you na xiang bei zhu jian jiang di de kong jian fen bu te zheng ,yan chang jiang yi dai de qi wen pu bian pian gao ,zai jiang huai liu yu xi bu cun zai di zhi ou 。jiang shui zong ti ye cheng xian you dong na xiang xi bei zhu jian jian shao de kong jian fen bu te zheng ,yan chang jiang yi dai de jiang shui ye pu bian pian duo 。quan qiu bian nuan hou ,jiang huai liu yu de ge zhan dian zai mei yu ji de ping jun qi wen yu bian nuan qian xiang bi zong ti cheng yi zhi de shang sheng qu shi ,ju yan chang jiang yi dai bian hua fu du geng wei ming xian 。jiang shui bian hua yu qi wen lei shi ,chu jiang huai zhou bian de ou xi bei ji dong na bu shao shu zhan dian de jiang shui cheng jian shao qu shi 、ju jian shao fu du xiang dui jiao ruo wai ,yan chang jiang yi dai de bian hua fu du jiao wei ming xian 。（2）CMIP5mo shi mo ni jiang huai liu yu qi hou bian hua de ping gu ji wei lai yu ce 22ge CMIP5mo shi de ji ge ping jun dui jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi hou de ping jun bian hua qu shi de kong jian fen bu mo ni xiao guo liang hao ,jiao hao de zai xian le jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi wen ji jiang shui liang de qi hou tai fen bu te zheng ,shi yong mo shi dui wei lai jiang huai liu yu de mei yu ji qi hou jin hang yu gu ju you ke hang xing 。zai wei lai quan qiu jin yi bu bian nuan de bei jing xia ,jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji ping jun qi wen sheng gao ,jiang shui liang ye jin yi bu zeng jia 。ju sui zhao wen shi qi ti pai fang liang de zeng jia ,jiang shui de kong jian fen bu fei jun yun xing ye geng wei ming xian 。liang chong pai fang qing jing xia jiang huai liu yu de mei yu ji qi wen ji jiang shui liang xiang dui xian dai er yan dou cheng ming xian de shang sheng qu shi 。ji zhong qi wen de zeng jiang shi zheng ti xing de ,fen bu jiao wei jun yun 。RCP8.5qing jing xia duo mo shi ji ge de qi wen bian hua su lv (0.45℃·（10a）-1)gao yu RCP4.5qing jing (0.23℃·（10a）-1)。zhi er shi yi shi ji mo ji ,RCP4.5qing jing xia jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi wen xiang dui xian dai er yan ping jun zeng wen 2.20℃,RCP8.5qing jing xia zeng wen geng wei xian zhe ,da 4.30℃。jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji jiang shui zai RCP4.5qing jing xia duo mo shi ji ge bian hua su lv (0.72mm·（10a）-1)lve gao yu RCP8.5qing jing (0.51mm·（10a）-1),zai RCP8.5qing jing xia jiang shui de kong jian fen bu fei jun yun xing gao yu RCP4.5qing jing 。ju sui zhao shi jian de tui yi ,liang chong pai fang qing jing xia jiang shui de kong jian fen bu fei jun yun xing dou zai jia ju :jiang huai liu yu na bu jiang shui jian shao de tong shi ,bei bu jiang shui ming xian zeng jia 。（3）jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi hou bian hua de ji li tan tao ya zhou xia ji feng shi ying xiang jiang huai liu yu xia ji jiang shui zui zhu yao de huan liu ji tong ,qu dong zhao na hai he meng jia la wan de shui qi bei shu song zhi jiang huai liu yu ,dui jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji jiang shui you chong yao ying xiang 。zai pian nuan nian ,na ya xia ji feng jian ruo ,shui qi bei shu song zhi chang jiang liu yu ,yu dong ya xia ji feng shu song de shui qi zai jiang huai liu yu hui ge ,shi de jiang huai liu yu shui qi yi chang chong pei 、qi hou pian shi ;fan zhi ,shui qi kui fa ju qi hou pian gan 。na ya gao ya ji xi feng ji liu de jiang ruo ji wei zhi ye yu jiang huai liu yu de mei yu ji jiang shui you jin mi lian ji :zai pian nuan nian ,dang na ya gao ya zeng jiang ju fu re dai xi feng ji liu wei zhi pian na 、pian jiang shi ,jiang huai liu yu pu bian pian lao ;fan zhi ,jiang huai liu yu pu bian pian gan 。jiang huai liu yu de shui qi zhu yao you na ya ji feng de xi feng qi liu wei xiang shu song er lai ,zai pian nuan nian ,na ya ji feng de wei xiang shu song xiang dui jiao jiang ,gai nian xiang dui pian shi ;fan zhi ze pian gan 。jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi hou yu chi dao zhong dong tai ping xiang hai wen you jiao xian zhe de zheng xiang guan guan ji 。zai dian xing de e er ni nuo ying xiang nian ,xi bei tai ping xiang cun zai yi chang de fan qi xuan huan liu ,jiang da liang shui qi shu song zhi jiang huai liu yu ;zai dian xing de la ni na ying xiang nian ,bei tai ping xiang xi bu hai wen de zheng yi chang you li yu shui qi jiao hui yu jiang huai liu yu dong bu ,shi de gai de ou xia ji jiang shui pian duo 。li yong CMIP5hai wen jun yun zeng jia de mo ni jie guo fa xian ,hai wen de jun yun zeng jia jiang shi jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji qi wen zheng ti zeng jia ,ju zeng nuan qu shi you xi xiang dong di jian ;tong shi ,jiang shui yi fa sheng xiang ying zeng jia ,jiang shui zeng jia fu du you dong xiang xi di jian ,ju nian ji bian hua fu du geng wei xian zhe 。zhe yi wei zhao zai quan qiu hai wen sheng gao de qing kuang xia ,jiang huai liu yu mei yu ji de ji duan jiang shui fa sheng pin ci ke neng zeng duo 。
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论文作者分别是来自兰州大学的吴楚樵，发表于刊物兰州大学2019-07-29论文，是一篇关于梅雨期论文,江淮流域论文,全球变暖论文,海温论文,预估论文,兰州大学2019-07-29论文的文章。本文可供学术参考使用，各位学者可以免费参考阅读下载，文章观点不代表本站观点，资料来自兰州大学2019-07-29论文网站，若本站收录的文献无意侵犯了您的著作版权，请联系我们删除。