Regression Analysis of State’s Budget of Mali from 1990 to 2008

论文摘要

In this thesis, we use the unit root testing techniques to identify variables which have stable long-run relationships with one another.The relationship is supposed public expenditure to be an outcome, not cause, of growth in government.Many （perhaps most） macroeconomic variables are non stationary. Many of these are difference stationary, Economics - many variables have stable long-run relationships.The analysis of unit-root processes and cointegrated systems has played a prominent role in econometrics and macroeconomics in the last decade, with applications to diverse fields such as macroeconomics, finance, economic history, international economics, etc. The reasons for such a rapid expansion of the subject are its strong intuitive appeal and its highly involved technical complexity.This paper examines relationship between Government revenue Rt and expenditure Gt in Mali from 1990– 2008. Using Cointegrating Regression Dickey Fuller test （CRDF） with annual data government budget of Mali over 1990-2008 periods. The empirical results using CRDF test do not reject that the hypothesis that we have two I（1） series under the model at 5% level.

论文目录

• Abstract
• List of Abbreviations
• Chapter 1 Regression analysis
• 1.1 Regression models
• 1.1.1 Simple linear regression model
• 1.1.2 Least Square Estimation LSE
• 2'>1.1.3 Estimatingσ²
• 1.1.4 Properties of the least squares estimators
• 1.1.5 Hypothesis tests in simple linear regression
• 1.1.6 Use of T-TEST
• 1.1.7 Analysis of variance approach to test significance of regression
• 1.1.8 Correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination
• 1.1.9 Confidence intervals
• Chapter 2 Budget of Mali
• 2.1 The Government Budget
• 2.2 Presenting and voting the budget
• 2.2.1 Presentation
• 2.2.2 Vote
• 2.3 Preparing the budget
• 2.3.1 The technical phase
• 2.3.2 The political phase
• 2.3.3 The legislative phase
• 2.4 The Program budget
• 2.5 Trend of state budget 2002 - 2006
• 2.6 Macro-budgetary framework 2007-2011
• 2.7 Budget system and program budgets
• Chapter 3 Cointegration Government Revenue and Expenditure
• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Methodology
• 3.3 The Data and Empirical Results
• 3.3.1 Unit Root Test
• Chapter 4 Discussion and Conclusion
• 4.1 Discussion
• 4.2 Conclusion
• Bibliography
• Acknowledgements