中国人民币汇率评估

论文摘要

中国于1980年改革开放以来,人民币汇率经历了一系列的历史波折变迁。本文论述了人民币与美元之间双边汇率的发展,并且通过对人民币有效汇率的诠释,来观察中国与主要贸易伙伴间的多边权重汇率。同时本论文对人民币汇率改革中比较重要的两次变革,1994变革和2005变革做了描述与评价,本文认为,即使在2005年改革之后,美元依然在人民币汇率权重中占主要地位。此文通过一般最小二乘法模型检验了1998年至2008年人民币远期汇率市场的无偏性,本文检验得市场不是有效市场,而在不同时期,体现的无偏性水平不一致。

论文目录

• Acknowledgements
• 1. Abstract and Introduction
• 1.1 中文摘要
• 1.2 Abstract
• 1.3 Introduction
• 1.4 List of Figures and Tables, List of Mathematical Symbols
• 2. The development of the bilateral and multilateral RMB spot exchange rates
• 2.1 Bilateral RMB/USD exchange rate
• 2.2 Nominal effective RMB/USD exchange rate
• 2.3 Real effective RMB/USD exchange rate
• 2.4 Asia Crisis
• 3. Historical reforms of Chinese exchange regime
• 3.1 The dual track exchange rate regime
• 3.2 The 1994 reform
• 3.3 The 2005 reform
• 3.3.1 The characters of the new exchange rate regime
• 3.3.2 Whether China has adopted the 'real' basket referenced regime or not?
• 3.3.3 Revaluation of RMB exchange rate under the economic and political background
• 4. Forward exchange rate and exchange rate expectations
• 4.1. The RMB NDF Market
• 4.2. The RMB NDF Exchange Rate, 1998 - 2007
• 4.3 Testing for Market Efficiency and Unbiasedness
• 4.4 The Cross-Correlation of NDF Exchange Rates Across Asia
• 5. Conclusions
• 6. Appendix 1. Exchange rate regime change during 1980 to 2005
• 7. Reference list