中—非国际建设工程项目中的风险评价实证研究

论文摘要

近年来，中国和非洲之间的贸易额不断增长，2012年已达1985亿美元并且被估算在2015年达到3850亿美元。非洲大陆是中国最重要的经济合作伙伴（排在法国和美国前面），但是中国企业尤其是与建筑相关的公司在非洲正在面临一系列管理问题，如果不采取相应的措施，这很可能将严重威胁到未来他们在非洲建筑市场的扩张。中非国际建设项目管理的主要问题之一就是风险管理问题。中国企业目前对这些问题并没有认真考虑。本文通过对中非建设项目调查和采访来识别中非国际建设项目的主要风险源。基于调查分析所得到的数据，通过实证研究识别了在项目每个阶段的风险，并根据其严重程度和发生概率运用层次分析方法（AHP）来分析主要风险和风险源，结合决策支持技术（DST）来评估其发生严重程度。在风险分析的基础上，针对主要项目风险提出相应的应对措施，以通过有效的风险管理来减少目前中非国际建设项目中所遇到费用增加以及项目交付延误等风险。研究结果表明，在中非国际建设项目（SA-ICPs）实施过程中，施工筹建阶段缺乏对施工现场、环境以及组织文化差异的调查，是最大风险源之一。本文创新性地提出了履行风险管理的不同研究框架以及文化管理方法的解决方案，并应用该框架及方案对两个项目案例进行评估，研究结果表明了该研究框架及方案对中非国际建设程项目的风险管理研究的有效性。本文的研究，为中国承包商及当地业主（政府）了解中非建设工程项目风险并依据项目风险评估的结果来管理项目过程中所遇到的主要风险提供了参考和帮助。

论文目录

• FOREWORDS
• ABSTRACT
• 中文摘要
• CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
• 1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE RESEARCH
• 1.2 RESEARCH PROBLEM
• 1.3 RESEARCH PURPOSE
• 1.4 SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS
• 1.5 RESEARCH JUSTIFICATION
• 1.6 The 100 most important Chinese Companies in Africa
• Sources of delays in Sino-African ICPs
• 1.7 Afro-Westerns VS Sino-African Projects issues
• 1.8 Sino-African ICPs: a technology transfer source for African Construction Industry
• 1.9 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
• 1.10 Surveys and interviews introduction
• 1.11 The Dempster-Shafer Theory （DST） and its approach to AHP
• 1.12 Case Study Planning
• 1.13 Delimitation of Scope
• 1.14 Research Outline and Thesis Organization
• CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
• 2.1 PREAMBLE
• 2.2 INTRODUCTION
• 2.3 DEFINITIONS
• 2.3.1 Risk
• 2.3.2 Nature of Risks35
• 2.3.3 Risk and uncertainty
• 2.3.4 Cultural Risks
• 2.3.5 Risk management
• 2.3.6 Project Risk Management
• 2.4 RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES AND SHORTCOMINGS45
• 2.5 INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
• 2.5.1 Historical Overview
• 2.5.2 Risk management within the business practices
• 2.5.3 International Construction Projects Risk assessment models
• 2.5.4 Sino-African International construction projects
• 2.6 SUMMARY
• CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN
• 3.1 INTRODUCTION
• 3.2 QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN
• 3.2.1 WHAT CAN QUESTIONNAIRES MEASURE?
• 3.2.2 WHEN TO USE A QUESTIONNAIRE?
• 3.2.3 DEFINING THE OBJECTIVES OF THE SURVEY
• 3.2.4 WRITING THE QUESTIONNAIRE
• 3.3 CASE STUDIES DESIGN
• 3.4 RESEARCH DESIGN PHASES
• 3.5 RESEARCH FINDINGS
• 3.6 CONCLUSIONS
• CHAPTER FOUR METHODOLOGY AND PROCESS OF THE RESEARCH
• 4.1 INTRODUCTION
• 4.2 RESEARCH STRATEGY
• 4.3 RESEARCH PROCEDURE
• 4.4 RESEARCH STEPS
• 4.4.1 Stage1: Review literature
• 4.4.2 Stage2: Establishing data source for Sino-African International Construction Projects
• 4.4.3 Stage3: Expert Elicitation Technique
• 4.4.4 Stage4: Data Analysis Models and Frameworks development
• 4.4.5 Stage5: Case Studies
• 4.5 ETHICAL CONSIDERATION
• 4.6 CONCLUSION
• CHAPTER FIVE CASE STUDIES AND MODEL EVALUATION
• 5.1 INTRODUCTION
• 5.1.1 General Properties of the Case Studies
• 5.1.2 Unit of Analysis: Background, Organization and the Management of UA
• 5.1.3 Reasons for the Case Studies
• 5.2 CASE STUDY 1: ASSESSING THE RISKINESS OF CONSTRUCTION EXPERIMENT PROJECT UNDER SINO-AFRICAN LABORATORY ENVIRONMENT
• 5.2.1 Introduction
• 5.2.2 Laboratory Experiments management
• 5.2.3 Risk assessment in laboratory experiments projects
• 5.2.4 The framework for risk management during construction experiments using AHP
• 5.2.5 Case Study steps
• 5.2.6 Assessment of the risks sources involved in the case study
• 5.3 CASE STUDY 2: RISK ASSESSMENT OF AN OFFICE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
• 5.3.1 Introduction
• 5.3.2 Case project general presentation
• 5.3.3 Risk assessment process
• 5.4 Case Studies results and evaluation
• 5.5 Summary
• CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION
• 6.1 DISCUSSION
• 6.2 RESEARCH FINDINGS
• 6.2.1 Project Data
• 6.2.2 Expert Elicitation findings
• 6.2.3 Implication for SA-ICPM “body of knowledge”
• 6.2.4 Implication for SA-ICPM practices
• 6.3 RESEARCH LIMITATION
• 6.4 FUTURE RESEARCH
• 6.4.1 Implementing BIM in the risk management process for Sino-African International Construction Projects
• 6.4.2 P6 scheduling model for Risk control and Management Planning in SA-ICP
• 6.5 FRAMEWORK FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF BIM AND P6 SCHEDULING MODELS IN THE SA-ICPM PROCESS
• 6.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
• REFERENCES
• LIST OF FIGURES
• LIST OF TABLES
• PUBLICATIONS, CONFERENCES AND PROJECTS ATTENDANCE
• PUBLICATIONS
• CONFERENCES & TRAININGS ATTENDANCE
• PROJECTS ATTENDANCE
• ANNEX
• ACKNOWLEDGEMENT