本文主要研究内容
作者朱朋虎（2019）在《个人碳交易视角下阶梯电价的政策评估与优化设计》一文中研究指出：个人消费领域的碳排放行为及其后果愈发成为能源与气候变化研究领域关注的重点。长期以来,基于工业领域排放量大、可操作性强等特点,世界各国陆续在工业生产领域开征碳税、建立碳交易市场等以控制其碳排放行为,但却鲜有针对个人消费领域的碳排放规制手段。随着经济社会的持续发展,相关研究表明个人消费领域的碳排放增速逐渐超过工业生产领域,并且个人能源消费的增长逐渐成为全球碳排放增长的主要原因,个人消费领域蕴含巨大的减排潜力。部分学者据此提出了个人碳交易方案,旨在通过市场化的交易机制降低个人消费领域的碳排放,并激励消费者逐渐养成低碳的生活和消费方式。当前,我国以煤为主的发电方式导致电力领域的碳排放量占比达40%以上,对电力行业的排放控制逐渐成为政府实现减排目标的重要突破口。2012年7月,我国开始在除西藏与新疆外的大陆所有地区推广实施居民阶梯电价政策,旨在引导居民节约用电以缓解资源与环境压力。但是,自阶梯电价政策执行近七年以来,绝大多数省份很少对阶梯电价的结构参数进行调整,电力消费所引致的环境负外部性问题日益凸显。随着我国居民生活水平和消费水平的逐渐提高,居民生活碳排放在碳排放总量中的比例也逐年上升。鉴于此,为实现我国日益严格的减排目标以履行大国减排承诺,本文将以居民用电领域的碳排放为例,结合个人碳交易体系对阶梯电价政策的相关参数进行优化设计,以期在对居民电力消费领域的碳排放进行规制的同时更好地实现阶梯电价的政策目标。本文首先从阶梯电价和个人碳交易的概念着手,对阶梯电价与个人碳交易的国内外相关研究进行了梳理,并围绕阶梯定价政策的优化设计以及个人碳交易的实施成本等问题,指出了相关研究的不足。其次,本文基于消费者效用理论构建了个人碳交易体系下的消费者行为模型,在此基础上结合阶梯电价的政策目标分别构建了阶梯价格的优化模型与阶梯长度的优化模型。然后,结合CFPS(2014,2016)微观调查数据及阶梯电价参数信息等,对我国25个省份正在实施的阶梯电价参数进行了模拟调整;并在估计居民用电需求弹性的基础上,通过构建反事实场景和消费者福利变化的分析框架,分析了阶梯电价的两类参数调整对消费者用电需求以及消费者福利的影响;最后,在对上述结果进行对比分析的基础上提炼出研究结论,并提出了相应的政策启示。本文的主要研究结论有:第一,个人碳交易视角下阶梯电价的两类参数优化,均使当前的统一式阶梯电价结构变为分档式电价结构。阶梯价格优化后,第一阶梯价格下降,而第二、第三阶梯价格提高;阶梯长度优化后,两个阶梯门槛值减小,同时第一阶梯居民获得一定额度的免费用电量。以初始碳配额为1308千克为例(情景一),价格参数优化后,第一阶梯价格下降0.013元/千瓦时,约占第一阶梯价格的1.62%,第二、第三阶梯价格分别上涨0.023元/千瓦时、0.035元/千瓦时,约占其价格的4.01%、4.16%,但只有用电量处于第一阶梯的居民才适用参数优化后的第一阶梯低价格,如果居民的用电量超过第一阶梯,则其第一阶梯价格保持不变。阶梯长度参数优化后,第二、第三阶梯门槛值分别减小75千瓦时、63千瓦时,分别占第一、第二阶梯长度的3.27%、4.27%,但用电量处于第一阶梯的居民获得23千瓦时的免费用电量,约占第一阶梯居民平均用电量的0.99%,如果用电量超过第一阶梯,则不再享有免费用电量。第二,初始碳配额决定了碳价格的高低,同时也对个人碳交易视角下阶梯电价参数的调整幅度具有重要影响。随着初始碳配额从1308千克(情景一)逐渐降低至1073千克(情景四),均衡碳价格逐渐从25元/吨提高至243元/吨。初始碳配额一旦设定,消费者即被分成高排放者与低排放者,与不实施个人碳交易相比,高排放者必然要付出更多的金钱用于电力消费,而低排放者却可以出售多余配额获得额外收入。此时,通过模拟PCT对不同消费者的收入影响来对阶梯电价的参数进行设计,参数设计的结果很大程度上由均衡碳价格决定。具体地,价格参数优化后,情景一到情景四中,初始碳配额每降低1%,均衡碳价格平均增加48.61%,第一阶梯价格平均下降0.36%,第二、第三阶梯价格平均上涨2.60%、2.18%;长度参数优化后,情景一到情景四中,初始碳配额每降低1%,第一阶梯居民免费用电额度平均增加37.32%,第二、第三阶梯门槛值分别平均降低2.13%、1.05%。第三,个人碳交易视角下阶梯电价的不同参数设计对不同阶梯、不同收入等级居民电力消费和福利状况的影响具有差异。以初始碳配额为1073千克为例(情景四),价格参数优化场景下,总体上居民用电量平均下降70千瓦时,约占居民年均用电量的3.43%;而阶梯长度参数优化场景下,总体上居民用电量平均增加4千瓦时,对居民用电的实际影响较小。分阶梯来看,价格参数优化后,第一阶梯居民用电量平均增加23千瓦时,其福利增加额占其年均用电费用的8.23%,第二、第三阶梯居民用电量平均分别降低231千瓦时、401千瓦时,福利损失额分别占其年均用电费用的54.65%、28.11%;而长度参数优化后,第一阶梯居民用电量增加24千瓦时,福利增加额占其年均用电费用的7.36%,第二、第三阶梯居民用电量仅平均分别降低32千瓦时、80千瓦时,福利损失额仅分别占其年均用电费用的5.09%、7.05%,远远小于价格参数优化对其的影响。分收入等级来看,两类参数对不同收入阶层的居民影响差异也较大,价格参数优化后各收入阶层居民用电量及福利均下降,其中低收入阶层福利损失占比8.81%,高收入阶层福利损失占比27.06%;但长度参数优化后仅中高收入与高收入阶层居民用电量及福利出现少许下降,低收入阶层居民福利增加8.14%,但高收入阶层居民福利损失仅3.85%。以上结论的政策启示有:第一,当前中国居民收入普遍上涨,居民用电需求增长加快,而居民用电需求相对缺乏弹性,造成居民用电铺张浪费现象日益严重。因此,节能减排不能只局限于能源生产领域,政府可以适时考虑对消费侧的碳排放进行规制,并将其与现有能源政策相结合以降低规制成本。第二,个人碳交易机制为政府完成碳排放总量控制目标提供了一个可行的解决方案,但初始碳配额的分配对碳市场及其视角下的阶梯电价参数设计具有重要影响。因此,规制者需要综合考虑现实环境制定配额分配原则以合理分配初始碳配额,充分发挥减排进程中的引导作用。第三,合理的居民阶梯电价结构,除了对居民用电形成节能增效的激励以提高效率之外,更应该让补贴有目标的流向最需要的群体(如低收入家庭),以改善公平,但实际中很难避免高收入家庭“搭便车”享受福利补贴电价。因此,阶梯电价的优化设计要尤其关注不同收入阶层的利益变化,考虑对整个阶梯电价结构进行优化设计,以更好实现阶梯电价的“效率”与“公平”等多重政策目标。
Abstract
ge ren xiao fei ling yu de tan pai fang hang wei ji ji hou guo yu fa cheng wei neng yuan yu qi hou bian hua yan jiu ling yu guan zhu de chong dian 。chang ji yi lai ,ji yu gong ye ling yu pai fang liang da 、ke cao zuo xing jiang deng te dian ,shi jie ge guo liu xu zai gong ye sheng chan ling yu kai zheng tan shui 、jian li tan jiao yi shi chang deng yi kong zhi ji tan pai fang hang wei ,dan que xian you zhen dui ge ren xiao fei ling yu de tan pai fang gui zhi shou duan 。sui zhao jing ji she hui de chi xu fa zhan ,xiang guan yan jiu biao ming ge ren xiao fei ling yu de tan pai fang zeng su zhu jian chao guo gong ye sheng chan ling yu ,bing ju ge ren neng yuan xiao fei de zeng chang zhu jian cheng wei quan qiu tan pai fang zeng chang de zhu yao yuan yin ,ge ren xiao fei ling yu wen han ju da de jian pai qian li 。bu fen xue zhe ju ci di chu le ge ren tan jiao yi fang an ,zhi zai tong guo shi chang hua de jiao yi ji zhi jiang di ge ren xiao fei ling yu de tan pai fang ,bing ji li xiao fei zhe zhu jian yang cheng di tan de sheng huo he xiao fei fang shi 。dang qian ,wo guo yi mei wei zhu de fa dian fang shi dao zhi dian li ling yu de tan pai fang liang zhan bi da 40%yi shang ,dui dian li hang ye de pai fang kong zhi zhu jian cheng wei zheng fu shi xian jian pai mu biao de chong yao tu po kou 。2012nian 7yue ,wo guo kai shi zai chu xi cang yu xin jiang wai de da liu suo you de ou tui an shi shi ju min jie ti dian jia zheng ce ,zhi zai yin dao ju min jie yao yong dian yi huan jie zi yuan yu huan jing ya li 。dan shi ,zi jie ti dian jia zheng ce zhi hang jin qi nian yi lai ,jue da duo shu sheng fen hen shao dui jie ti dian jia de jie gou can shu jin hang diao zheng ,dian li xiao fei suo yin zhi de huan jing fu wai bu xing wen ti ri yi tu xian 。sui zhao wo guo ju min sheng huo shui ping he xiao fei shui ping de zhu jian di gao ,ju min sheng huo tan pai fang zai tan pai fang zong liang zhong de bi li ye zhu nian shang sheng 。jian yu ci ,wei shi xian wo guo ri yi yan ge de jian pai mu biao yi lv hang da guo jian pai cheng nuo ,ben wen jiang yi ju min yong dian ling yu de tan pai fang wei li ,jie ge ge ren tan jiao yi ti ji dui jie ti dian jia zheng ce de xiang guan can shu jin hang you hua she ji ,yi ji zai dui ju min dian li xiao fei ling yu de tan pai fang jin hang gui zhi de tong shi geng hao de shi xian jie ti dian jia de zheng ce mu biao 。ben wen shou xian cong jie ti dian jia he ge ren tan jiao yi de gai nian zhao shou ,dui jie ti dian jia yu ge ren tan jiao yi de guo nei wai xiang guan yan jiu jin hang le shu li ,bing wei rao jie ti ding jia zheng ce de you hua she ji yi ji ge ren tan jiao yi de shi shi cheng ben deng wen ti ,zhi chu le xiang guan yan jiu de bu zu 。ji ci ,ben wen ji yu xiao fei zhe xiao yong li lun gou jian le ge ren tan jiao yi ti ji xia de xiao fei zhe hang wei mo xing ,zai ci ji chu shang jie ge jie ti dian jia de zheng ce mu biao fen bie gou jian le jie ti jia ge de you hua mo xing yu jie ti chang du de you hua mo xing 。ran hou ,jie ge CFPS(2014,2016)wei guan diao cha shu ju ji jie ti dian jia can shu xin xi deng ,dui wo guo 25ge sheng fen zheng zai shi shi de jie ti dian jia can shu jin hang le mo ni diao zheng ;bing zai gu ji ju min yong dian xu qiu dan xing de ji chu shang ,tong guo gou jian fan shi shi chang jing he xiao fei zhe fu li bian hua de fen xi kuang jia ,fen xi le jie ti dian jia de liang lei can shu diao zheng dui xiao fei zhe yong dian xu qiu yi ji xiao fei zhe fu li de ying xiang ;zui hou ,zai dui shang shu jie guo jin hang dui bi fen xi de ji chu shang di lian chu yan jiu jie lun ,bing di chu le xiang ying de zheng ce qi shi 。ben wen de zhu yao yan jiu jie lun you :di yi ,ge ren tan jiao yi shi jiao xia jie ti dian jia de liang lei can shu you hua ,jun shi dang qian de tong yi shi jie ti dian jia jie gou bian wei fen dang shi dian jia jie gou 。jie ti jia ge you hua hou ,di yi jie ti jia ge xia jiang ,er di er 、di san jie ti jia ge di gao ;jie ti chang du you hua hou ,liang ge jie ti men jian zhi jian xiao ,tong shi di yi jie ti ju min huo de yi ding e du de mian fei yong dian liang 。yi chu shi tan pei e wei 1308qian ke wei li (qing jing yi ),jia ge can shu you hua hou ,di yi jie ti jia ge xia jiang 0.013yuan /qian wa shi ,yao zhan di yi jie ti jia ge de 1.62%,di er 、di san jie ti jia ge fen bie shang zhang 0.023yuan /qian wa shi 、0.035yuan /qian wa shi ,yao zhan ji jia ge de 4.01%、4.16%,dan zhi you yong dian liang chu yu di yi jie ti de ju min cai kuo yong can shu you hua hou de di yi jie ti di jia ge ,ru guo ju min de yong dian liang chao guo di yi jie ti ,ze ji di yi jie ti jia ge bao chi bu bian 。jie ti chang du can shu you hua hou ,di er 、di san jie ti men jian zhi fen bie jian xiao 75qian wa shi 、63qian wa shi ,fen bie zhan di yi 、di er jie ti chang du de 3.27%、4.27%,dan yong dian liang chu yu di yi jie ti de ju min huo de 23qian wa shi de mian fei yong dian liang ,yao zhan di yi jie ti ju min ping jun yong dian liang de 0.99%,ru guo yong dian liang chao guo di yi jie ti ,ze bu zai xiang you mian fei yong dian liang 。di er ,chu shi tan pei e jue ding le tan jia ge de gao di ,tong shi ye dui ge ren tan jiao yi shi jiao xia jie ti dian jia can shu de diao zheng fu du ju you chong yao ying xiang 。sui zhao chu shi tan pei e cong 1308qian ke (qing jing yi )zhu jian jiang di zhi 1073qian ke (qing jing si ),jun heng tan jia ge zhu jian cong 25yuan /dun di gao zhi 243yuan /dun 。chu shi tan pei e yi dan she ding ,xiao fei zhe ji bei fen cheng gao pai fang zhe yu di pai fang zhe ,yu bu shi shi ge ren tan jiao yi xiang bi ,gao pai fang zhe bi ran yao fu chu geng duo de jin qian yong yu dian li xiao fei ,er di pai fang zhe que ke yi chu shou duo yu pei e huo de e wai shou ru 。ci shi ,tong guo mo ni PCTdui bu tong xiao fei zhe de shou ru ying xiang lai dui jie ti dian jia de can shu jin hang she ji ,can shu she ji de jie guo hen da cheng du shang you jun heng tan jia ge jue ding 。ju ti de ,jia ge can shu you hua hou ,qing jing yi dao qing jing si zhong ,chu shi tan pei e mei jiang di 1%,jun heng tan jia ge ping jun zeng jia 48.61%,di yi jie ti jia ge ping jun xia jiang 0.36%,di er 、di san jie ti jia ge ping jun shang zhang 2.60%、2.18%;chang du can shu you hua hou ,qing jing yi dao qing jing si zhong ,chu shi tan pei e mei jiang di 1%,di yi jie ti ju min mian fei yong dian e du ping jun zeng jia 37.32%,di er 、di san jie ti men jian zhi fen bie ping jun jiang di 2.13%、1.05%。di san ,ge ren tan jiao yi shi jiao xia jie ti dian jia de bu tong can shu she ji dui bu tong jie ti 、bu tong shou ru deng ji ju min dian li xiao fei he fu li zhuang kuang de ying xiang ju you cha yi 。yi chu shi tan pei e wei 1073qian ke wei li (qing jing si ),jia ge can shu you hua chang jing xia ,zong ti shang ju min yong dian liang ping jun xia jiang 70qian wa shi ,yao zhan ju min nian jun yong dian liang de 3.43%;er jie ti chang du can shu you hua chang jing xia ,zong ti shang ju min yong dian liang ping jun zeng jia 4qian wa shi ,dui ju min yong dian de shi ji ying xiang jiao xiao 。fen jie ti lai kan ,jia ge can shu you hua hou ,di yi jie ti ju min yong dian liang ping jun zeng jia 23qian wa shi ,ji fu li zeng jia e zhan ji nian jun yong dian fei yong de 8.23%,di er 、di san jie ti ju min yong dian liang ping jun fen bie jiang di 231qian wa shi 、401qian wa shi ,fu li sun shi e fen bie zhan ji nian jun yong dian fei yong de 54.65%、28.11%;er chang du can shu you hua hou ,di yi jie ti ju min yong dian liang zeng jia 24qian wa shi ,fu li zeng jia e zhan ji nian jun yong dian fei yong de 7.36%,di er 、di san jie ti ju min yong dian liang jin ping jun fen bie jiang di 32qian wa shi 、80qian wa shi ,fu li sun shi e jin fen bie zhan ji nian jun yong dian fei yong de 5.09%、7.05%,yuan yuan xiao yu jia ge can shu you hua dui ji de ying xiang 。fen shou ru deng ji lai kan ,liang lei can shu dui bu tong shou ru jie ceng de ju min ying xiang cha yi ye jiao da ,jia ge can shu you hua hou ge shou ru jie ceng ju min yong dian liang ji fu li jun xia jiang ,ji zhong di shou ru jie ceng fu li sun shi zhan bi 8.81%,gao shou ru jie ceng fu li sun shi zhan bi 27.06%;dan chang du can shu you hua hou jin zhong gao shou ru yu gao shou ru jie ceng ju min yong dian liang ji fu li chu xian shao hu xia jiang ,di shou ru jie ceng ju min fu li zeng jia 8.14%,dan gao shou ru jie ceng ju min fu li sun shi jin 3.85%。yi shang jie lun de zheng ce qi shi you :di yi ,dang qian zhong guo ju min shou ru pu bian shang zhang ,ju min yong dian xu qiu zeng chang jia kuai ,er ju min yong dian xu qiu xiang dui que fa dan xing ,zao cheng ju min yong dian pu zhang lang fei xian xiang ri yi yan chong 。yin ci ,jie neng jian pai bu neng zhi ju xian yu neng yuan sheng chan ling yu ,zheng fu ke yi kuo shi kao lv dui xiao fei ce de tan pai fang jin hang gui zhi ,bing jiang ji yu xian you neng yuan zheng ce xiang jie ge yi jiang di gui zhi cheng ben 。di er ,ge ren tan jiao yi ji zhi wei zheng fu wan cheng tan pai fang zong liang kong zhi mu biao di gong le yi ge ke hang de jie jue fang an ,dan chu shi tan pei e de fen pei dui tan shi chang ji ji shi jiao xia de jie ti dian jia can shu she ji ju you chong yao ying xiang 。yin ci ,gui zhi zhe xu yao zeng ge kao lv xian shi huan jing zhi ding pei e fen pei yuan ze yi ge li fen pei chu shi tan pei e ,chong fen fa hui jian pai jin cheng zhong de yin dao zuo yong 。di san ,ge li de ju min jie ti dian jia jie gou ,chu le dui ju min yong dian xing cheng jie neng zeng xiao de ji li yi di gao xiao lv zhi wai ,geng ying gai rang bu tie you mu biao de liu xiang zui xu yao de qun ti (ru di shou ru jia ting ),yi gai shan gong ping ,dan shi ji zhong hen nan bi mian gao shou ru jia ting “da bian che ”xiang shou fu li bu tie dian jia 。yin ci ,jie ti dian jia de you hua she ji yao you ji guan zhu bu tong shou ru jie ceng de li yi bian hua ,kao lv dui zheng ge jie ti dian jia jie gou jin hang you hua she ji ,yi geng hao shi xian jie ti dian jia de “xiao lv ”yu “gong ping ”deng duo chong zheng ce mu biao 。
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