论文摘要
This study was conducted with two main objectives:firstly, to study and analyze for factors that have some impact on the export of Thailand in exporting RSS3 to China; and secondly, to study about adaptation of rubber farmers when there are changes in such factors. For the second objective, a case study method was conducted with the "Bungkan Para Rubber Group" Agriculture Lovers Community Enterprise, Kokkong sub-district, Muang district, Bungkan province.In analyzing for influences of relevant factors on Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3 export of Thailand to China, the study employed the technique of multiple regression models, which were solved by the method of ordinary least square （OLS）. Trimester time-series data from 2001 to 2010 were used for the analysis, which was based on the theory of Learner and Sterne （1970） and some other reviewed literature. The analysis result revealed that factors affecting Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3 export of Thailand to China included 1)price of Block Rubber or STR20 （which is a substitute good of RSS3 for producing car tires in the motor vehicular industry）; 2) price of Tyre Cord Fabric （which is a complementary good of Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3 for producing car tires）; 3) a dummy variable that represents an impact from the opening of the R3A route that connects China-Laos-Thailand; and 4) a dummy variable that represents impact from the ASEAN-China ACFTA.Regarding adaptation of rubber farmers when there are changes in factors influencing RSS3 export from Thailand to China, the case study was conducted by employing the adaptation framework of John W. Bennet （1969） together with the facts as obtained from the in-depth interviews. Without using a questionnaire, the in-depth interviews were conducted with 2 groups of stakeholders namely:1) the Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3 export association of Thailand, the Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3 factory association of Thailand, and the Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3 factory association of Northeastern Thailand; and 2) the "Bungkan Para Rubber Group" Agriculture Lovers Community Enterprise, Kokkong sub-district, Muang district, Bungkan province. The study results revealed that, when there are changes in factors influencing Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3) export from Thailand to China, the farmers will know from changes in the buying price of latex, which they normally sell for being processed as Ribbed Smoked Sheets Grade 3. Observing the rising latex price, rubber farmers are stimulated to increase rubber plantation area for more yields, which means more income. However, due to limitation of the area, farmers need to make a decision regarding utilization of their available land, whether to use it for rubber trees or for other crops, based on foreseeable returns. Farmers also have an option to adapt their farming techniques to gain higher yield production per km3 and to reduce production cost, instead of increasing planting area. The farmers of "Bungkan Para Rubber Group" Agriculture Lovers Community Enterprise had shown that they could adapt to changes in factors affecting the export pretty well. Their employed techniques for improving rubber production included selecting a good variety of rubber seedlings, planting with rubber seedlings rooted in plastic bags, and treating rubber trees properly by means of correct fertilization, etc. Therefore, any farmers or any rubber communities that are able to adapt and improve their rubber production like this "Bungkan Para Rubber Group" Agriculture Lovers Community Enterprise would also gain benefits from the increasing RSS3 demand of China, which is facilitated by the commencement of ASEAN-China ACFTA and the opening of the R3A route through Thailand, Laos, and China.