本文主要研究内容
作者徐帅帅（2019）在《基于分布式水文模型的洪水预报及水库削峰的案例研究》一文中研究指出：近年来,受气候影响,世界各国都在遭受着洪水的侵袭,虽然世界政府采取了一些的工程与非工程措施,但面对自然的力量,人类的力量相对渺小,难以抵抗泥石流等附带灾害带来的人员和经济损失。因此,为减小洪水灾害带来的后果,唯有及时发布预报,增加居民警惕性,积极防御。水文模型是洪水预报的重要工具,可以研究水文过程,明晰洪灾成因机制,解决水文预报遇到的技术问题,是当前学者们研究的一大热点。福建省闽清县山脉众多、地形复杂,在强降雨影响下易发生山洪侵害。本文依托国家山洪灾害防治项目以及全国调查评价结果,以梅溪流域为研究对象,建立了基于子流域单元的分布式水文模型,并根据梅溪流域实测降雨径流资料对模型适用性进行验证,将适用模型参数应用于闽清县山丘区小流域洪水预报,为闽清县防洪预警预报提供科学依据。主要包括以下内容:(1)本文基于新安江三水源模型原理,结合GIS 10.2系统、梅溪流域数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,以下简称DEM)数据,考虑降雨空间不均匀性,以及土壤含水量不同、下垫面不同等条件对产流区形成产汇流量存在影响的问题,划分子流域单元并提取流域基础信息,根据土壤类型和土地利用数据资料确定下垫面参数,最终构建梅溪流域洪水预报模型。(2)构建的流域水文模型涉及各项参数,如产流参数、汇流参数、以及演进参数等,通过反演验证模型参数适用性。本文利用前2/3场次洪水用于模型参数率定,后1/3场次对参数进行验证,结果显示:率定期38场次洪水,确定性系数均值为0.85,验证期18场次洪水确定性系数均值为0.83,平均径流深相对误差率定期为10.39%,验证期为11.35%;平均洪峰流量相对误差率定期为8.83%,验证期为9.52%;峰现时间误差率定期为1.42 h,验证期为1.17 h。总体来看,模拟结果达到了水文预报的要求,构建的分布式水文模型可用于梅溪流域产汇流分析。(3)基于分布式水文模型洪水演进分析,利用模拟结果分析“尼伯特”台风暴雨洪水成因以及重现期。综合分析场次点降雨和面降雨情况,可得该场次最大时段雨量接近500年一遇,洪水重现期接近200年一遇,可知,尼伯特洪水重现期定义为200年一遇~500年一遇之间较为合理。(4)以预报时段前实测降雨作为水文模型输入,得到降雨后1h、3h、6h预见期内的预报流量,从结果可以看出,随着降雨时间输入的逐渐后移,预报流域出口处洪水流量逐渐增大,且与实际洪水起涨过程、起涨方式以及起涨量相一致,说明以实测降雨作为模型输入,基于分布式水文模型的洪水实时预报方法可行,且具有较高的预报精度。(5)考虑水库工程对洪水的削减作用,模拟不同频率的设计洪水过程,并采用实际洪水对结果进行了验证,分析了添加水库模型前后洪峰、洪水重现期及水库影响范围的变化。以岭里水库为例,研究水库工程建设对梅溪流域洪水规模的削减作用,结果表明设计洪水削减率随距离的增加逐渐减小,且在距离12 km左右处,削峰比率发生明显变化,且各重现期设计洪水削减比重斜率均较大,说明距离水库越近,洪峰削减作用更突出,岭里水库的影响范围约为38 km。
Abstract
jin nian lai ,shou qi hou ying xiang ,shi jie ge guo dou zai zao shou zhao hong shui de qin xi ,sui ran shi jie zheng fu cai qu le yi xie de gong cheng yu fei gong cheng cuo shi ,dan mian dui zi ran de li liang ,ren lei de li liang xiang dui miao xiao ,nan yi di kang ni dan liu deng fu dai zai hai dai lai de ren yuan he jing ji sun shi 。yin ci ,wei jian xiao hong shui zai hai dai lai de hou guo ,wei you ji shi fa bu yu bao ,zeng jia ju min jing ti xing ,ji ji fang yu 。shui wen mo xing shi hong shui yu bao de chong yao gong ju ,ke yi yan jiu shui wen guo cheng ,ming xi hong zai cheng yin ji zhi ,jie jue shui wen yu bao yu dao de ji shu wen ti ,shi dang qian xue zhe men yan jiu de yi da re dian 。fu jian sheng min qing xian shan mai zhong duo 、de xing fu za ,zai jiang jiang yu ying xiang xia yi fa sheng shan hong qin hai 。ben wen yi tuo guo jia shan hong zai hai fang zhi xiang mu yi ji quan guo diao cha ping jia jie guo ,yi mei xi liu yu wei yan jiu dui xiang ,jian li le ji yu zi liu yu chan yuan de fen bu shi shui wen mo xing ,bing gen ju mei xi liu yu shi ce jiang yu jing liu zi liao dui mo xing kuo yong xing jin hang yan zheng ,jiang kuo yong mo xing can shu ying yong yu min qing xian shan qiu ou xiao liu yu hong shui yu bao ,wei min qing xian fang hong yu jing yu bao di gong ke xue yi ju 。zhu yao bao gua yi xia nei rong :(1)ben wen ji yu xin an jiang san shui yuan mo xing yuan li ,jie ge GIS 10.2ji tong 、mei xi liu yu shu zi gao cheng mo xing (Digital Elevation Model,yi xia jian chen DEM)shu ju ,kao lv jiang yu kong jian bu jun yun xing ,yi ji tu rang han shui liang bu tong 、xia dian mian bu tong deng tiao jian dui chan liu ou xing cheng chan hui liu liang cun zai ying xiang de wen ti ,hua fen zi liu yu chan yuan bing di qu liu yu ji chu xin xi ,gen ju tu rang lei xing he tu de li yong shu ju zi liao que ding xia dian mian can shu ,zui zhong gou jian mei xi liu yu hong shui yu bao mo xing 。(2)gou jian de liu yu shui wen mo xing she ji ge xiang can shu ,ru chan liu can shu 、hui liu can shu 、yi ji yan jin can shu deng ,tong guo fan yan yan zheng mo xing can shu kuo yong xing 。ben wen li yong qian 2/3chang ci hong shui yong yu mo xing can shu lv ding ,hou 1/3chang ci dui can shu jin hang yan zheng ,jie guo xian shi :lv ding ji 38chang ci hong shui ,que ding xing ji shu jun zhi wei 0.85,yan zheng ji 18chang ci hong shui que ding xing ji shu jun zhi wei 0.83,ping jun jing liu shen xiang dui wu cha lv ding ji wei 10.39%,yan zheng ji wei 11.35%;ping jun hong feng liu liang xiang dui wu cha lv ding ji wei 8.83%,yan zheng ji wei 9.52%;feng xian shi jian wu cha lv ding ji wei 1.42 h,yan zheng ji wei 1.17 h。zong ti lai kan ,mo ni jie guo da dao le shui wen yu bao de yao qiu ,gou jian de fen bu shi shui wen mo xing ke yong yu mei xi liu yu chan hui liu fen xi 。(3)ji yu fen bu shi shui wen mo xing hong shui yan jin fen xi ,li yong mo ni jie guo fen xi “ni bai te ”tai feng bao yu hong shui cheng yin yi ji chong xian ji 。zeng ge fen xi chang ci dian jiang yu he mian jiang yu qing kuang ,ke de gai chang ci zui da shi duan yu liang jie jin 500nian yi yu ,hong shui chong xian ji jie jin 200nian yi yu ,ke zhi ,ni bai te hong shui chong xian ji ding yi wei 200nian yi yu ~500nian yi yu zhi jian jiao wei ge li 。(4)yi yu bao shi duan qian shi ce jiang yu zuo wei shui wen mo xing shu ru ,de dao jiang yu hou 1h、3h、6hyu jian ji nei de yu bao liu liang ,cong jie guo ke yi kan chu ,sui zhao jiang yu shi jian shu ru de zhu jian hou yi ,yu bao liu yu chu kou chu hong shui liu liang zhu jian zeng da ,ju yu shi ji hong shui qi zhang guo cheng 、qi zhang fang shi yi ji qi zhang liang xiang yi zhi ,shui ming yi shi ce jiang yu zuo wei mo xing shu ru ,ji yu fen bu shi shui wen mo xing de hong shui shi shi yu bao fang fa ke hang ,ju ju you jiao gao de yu bao jing du 。(5)kao lv shui ku gong cheng dui hong shui de xiao jian zuo yong ,mo ni bu tong pin lv de she ji hong shui guo cheng ,bing cai yong shi ji hong shui dui jie guo jin hang le yan zheng ,fen xi le tian jia shui ku mo xing qian hou hong feng 、hong shui chong xian ji ji shui ku ying xiang fan wei de bian hua 。yi ling li shui ku wei li ,yan jiu shui ku gong cheng jian she dui mei xi liu yu hong shui gui mo de xiao jian zuo yong ,jie guo biao ming she ji hong shui xiao jian lv sui ju li de zeng jia zhu jian jian xiao ,ju zai ju li 12 kmzuo you chu ,xiao feng bi lv fa sheng ming xian bian hua ,ju ge chong xian ji she ji hong shui xiao jian bi chong xie lv jun jiao da ,shui ming ju li shui ku yue jin ,hong feng xiao jian zuo yong geng tu chu ,ling li shui ku de ying xiang fan wei yao wei 38 km。
论文参考文献
论文详细介绍
论文作者分别是来自山东建筑大学的徐帅帅，发表于刊物山东建筑大学2019-07-15论文，是一篇关于梅溪流域论文,洪水预报论文,分布式水文模型论文,中小水库削峰论文,山东建筑大学2019-07-15论文的文章。本文可供学术参考使用，各位学者可以免费参考阅读下载，文章观点不代表本站观点，资料来自山东建筑大学2019-07-15论文网站，若本站收录的文献无意侵犯了您的著作版权，请联系我们删除。
标签：梅溪流域论文; 洪水预报论文; 分布式水文模型论文; 中小水库削峰论文; 山东建筑大学2019-07-15论文;