本文主要研究内容
作者赵娟（2019）在《基于VAR模型的典型流域水沙变化及其对降水与水土保持措施的动态响应》一文中研究指出：水土流失、水资源短缺、洪水危害、“下游悬河”等是治理黄河面临的严重水问题,而黄河流域水资源短缺与水土流失问题并存。在气候变化背景下,随黄土高原水土保持工作的强力推进,特别是2000年以来实施的退耕还林(草)工程,黄河径流量与输沙量锐减,与此同时水资源利用与黄河水沙调控成为研究的热点,如何评价区域水土保持措施对径流及输沙的影响已成为焦点问题之一。尽管对于水土保持措施的水沙效应已有大量研究,但目前的水保法等只是一种静态评价方法。本文以黄河一级支流佳芦河、秃尾河流域为研究区,整理流域水文、气象及水土保持措施资料,以VAR模型为主,集合多种现代统计学方法,综合分析流域径流量、输沙量变化规律,研究水土保持措施对流域径流、输沙影响规律,定量评估降水变化和人类活动对径流、输沙的影响,探索水土保持措施对流域径流及输沙影响的新方法。研究取得以下主要结果:(1)分析了佳芦河、秃尾河流域水土保持措施、降水、径流及输沙变化规律及其特点。近五十多年内,佳芦河、秃尾河流域各项水土保持措施面积(如梯田、林地、草地和坝地)显著增加,尤其是林地面积增幅达30倍以上。佳芦河、秃尾河流域年降水量年际间并未呈现显著的降低或增加趋势,主要表现为随机过程,其概率分布服从正态分布。两条流域径流量和输沙量都表现出显著的减少趋势。佳芦河年径流量序列服从偏态型卡方分布;秃尾河年径流量时间序列分布服从正态分布,而输沙量服从偏态型卡方分布。佳芦河及秃尾河年径流量分别自1983年和1985年开始发生突变,突变后年径流量显著下降。与径流量相似,输沙量分别自1981年和1999年开始发生突变,而且减少幅度较径流量更为剧烈。(2)量化了降水和水土保持措施对佳芦河、秃尾河流域径流、输沙量减少的贡献率。在降水及水土保持措施作用中,水土保持措施是导致两流域流域水沙减少的主要原因。相对于突变前,佳芦河流域降水和水土保持措施对突变后径流量减少的贡献率分别为4%、96%;对输沙量减少的贡献率分别为11%和89%。相对于突变前,秃尾河流域降水和水土保持措施对突变后径流量减少的贡献率分别为1%、99%;对输沙量减少的贡献率分别为14%和86%。基于滞后模型(PDL)分析表明,降水对径流的作用不能持续1年以上,二者之间没有长期作用;而输沙与降水、径流之间有长期影响作用。(3)构建了水沙对降水及各项水土保持措施动态响应模型,进一步明确了年径流量、输沙量、降水量和水土保持措施保存面积之间的响应关系。以佳芦河、秃尾河两流域基于年径流量、年输沙量、年降水量和年末水土保持措施保存面积总量构建的VAR模型均通过平稳性检验,可进行后续分析。格兰杰因果检验表明:降水和水土保持措施对径流、输沙存在单向影响;同时径流和输沙之间互为格兰杰因果关系,二者互相影响;降水和水土保持措施之间没有相关关系。脉冲响应函数计算结果表明:两流域降水和水土保持措施对径流、输沙的影响程度不一致,在响应强度上,秃尾河流域径流对自身依赖更强,对于降水响应比佳芦河较弱,对水土保持措施响应较佳芦河更慢。方差分解显示:两流域径流量减小是水土保持措施面积增加、对地表持续扰动的结果,而对于输沙变化是径流减小作用所致。(4)基于向量自回归VAR模型进一步分析年降水-径流-输沙-梯田-林地-草地-坝地-封禁之间的动态关系。以年降水量、年径流量、年输沙量、梯田面积、林地面积、草地面积、坝地面积、封禁面积作为表征变量。两流域分别构建了径流-输沙-降水-梯田-林地-草地-坝地-封禁VAR模型。佳芦河流域径流-输沙-降水-梯田-林地-草地-封禁-坝地8个时间序列建立VAR模型未通过单位特征根检验,说明所建VAR不平稳,脉冲响应曲线呈发散状,也说明VAR模型估计系数不稳定,VAR模型无效。秃尾河流域径流-输沙-降水-梯田-林地-草地-封禁-坝地8个时间序列建立VAR模型通过平稳性检验,可继续进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析。(5)脉冲响应函数分析秃尾河流域径流-输沙-降水-梯田-林地-草地-坝地-封禁之间的动态关系。结果表明:梯田、坝地对径流、输沙的影响具有一致性,减水又减沙;而林地既增加径流又增加输沙;草地水文效应较复杂,短期内增流又减沙,而长期则是减流又增沙;封禁增流又减沙。(6)定量研究各影响因子对径流、输沙变化的贡献度。秃尾河流域径流、输沙方差分解可知,不考虑年径流的自身贡献条件下,影响年径流量变动的其他变量的相对贡献程度依次为:封禁<草地<林地<坝地<输沙<梯田<降水,滞后15期内,封禁、草地、林地、坝地、输沙、梯田、降水对径流变动的平均贡献分别为1.35%、3.02%、8.02%、8.36%、9.87%、27.09%、42.36%。影响年输沙量变动的其他变量的相对贡献程度依次为:草地<坝地<封禁<林地<梯田<降水<径流,滞后15期内,草地、坝地、封禁、林地、梯田、降水、径流对输沙量变动的平均贡献分别为0.47%、1.36%、2.50%、3.86%、4.35%、12.95%。结合脉冲响应函数分析,研究期内径流量的减小是水土保持措施面积增加、对地表持续扰动的结果,而研究期内输沙量的减小主要是径流量减少作用所致。
Abstract
shui tu liu shi 、shui zi yuan duan que 、hong shui wei hai 、“xia you xuan he ”deng shi zhi li huang he mian lin de yan chong shui wen ti ,er huang he liu yu shui zi yuan duan que yu shui tu liu shi wen ti bing cun 。zai qi hou bian hua bei jing xia ,sui huang tu gao yuan shui tu bao chi gong zuo de jiang li tui jin ,te bie shi 2000nian yi lai shi shi de tui geng hai lin (cao )gong cheng ,huang he jing liu liang yu shu sha liang rui jian ,yu ci tong shi shui zi yuan li yong yu huang he shui sha diao kong cheng wei yan jiu de re dian ,ru he ping jia ou yu shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui jing liu ji shu sha de ying xiang yi cheng wei jiao dian wen ti zhi yi 。jin guan dui yu shui tu bao chi cuo shi de shui sha xiao ying yi you da liang yan jiu ,dan mu qian de shui bao fa deng zhi shi yi chong jing tai ping jia fang fa 。ben wen yi huang he yi ji zhi liu jia lu he 、tu wei he liu yu wei yan jiu ou ,zheng li liu yu shui wen 、qi xiang ji shui tu bao chi cuo shi zi liao ,yi VARmo xing wei zhu ,ji ge duo chong xian dai tong ji xue fang fa ,zeng ge fen xi liu yu jing liu liang 、shu sha liang bian hua gui lv ,yan jiu shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui liu yu jing liu 、shu sha ying xiang gui lv ,ding liang ping gu jiang shui bian hua he ren lei huo dong dui jing liu 、shu sha de ying xiang ,tan suo shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui liu yu jing liu ji shu sha ying xiang de xin fang fa 。yan jiu qu de yi xia zhu yao jie guo :(1)fen xi le jia lu he 、tu wei he liu yu shui tu bao chi cuo shi 、jiang shui 、jing liu ji shu sha bian hua gui lv ji ji te dian 。jin wu shi duo nian nei ,jia lu he 、tu wei he liu yu ge xiang shui tu bao chi cuo shi mian ji (ru ti tian 、lin de 、cao de he ba de )xian zhe zeng jia ,you ji shi lin de mian ji zeng fu da 30bei yi shang 。jia lu he 、tu wei he liu yu nian jiang shui liang nian ji jian bing wei cheng xian xian zhe de jiang di huo zeng jia qu shi ,zhu yao biao xian wei sui ji guo cheng ,ji gai lv fen bu fu cong zheng tai fen bu 。liang tiao liu yu jing liu liang he shu sha liang dou biao xian chu xian zhe de jian shao qu shi 。jia lu he nian jing liu liang xu lie fu cong pian tai xing ka fang fen bu ;tu wei he nian jing liu liang shi jian xu lie fen bu fu cong zheng tai fen bu ,er shu sha liang fu cong pian tai xing ka fang fen bu 。jia lu he ji tu wei he nian jing liu liang fen bie zi 1983nian he 1985nian kai shi fa sheng tu bian ,tu bian hou nian jing liu liang xian zhe xia jiang 。yu jing liu liang xiang shi ,shu sha liang fen bie zi 1981nian he 1999nian kai shi fa sheng tu bian ,er ju jian shao fu du jiao jing liu liang geng wei ju lie 。(2)liang hua le jiang shui he shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui jia lu he 、tu wei he liu yu jing liu 、shu sha liang jian shao de gong suo lv 。zai jiang shui ji shui tu bao chi cuo shi zuo yong zhong ,shui tu bao chi cuo shi shi dao zhi liang liu yu liu yu shui sha jian shao de zhu yao yuan yin 。xiang dui yu tu bian qian ,jia lu he liu yu jiang shui he shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui tu bian hou jing liu liang jian shao de gong suo lv fen bie wei 4%、96%;dui shu sha liang jian shao de gong suo lv fen bie wei 11%he 89%。xiang dui yu tu bian qian ,tu wei he liu yu jiang shui he shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui tu bian hou jing liu liang jian shao de gong suo lv fen bie wei 1%、99%;dui shu sha liang jian shao de gong suo lv fen bie wei 14%he 86%。ji yu zhi hou mo xing (PDL)fen xi biao ming ,jiang shui dui jing liu de zuo yong bu neng chi xu 1nian yi shang ,er zhe zhi jian mei you chang ji zuo yong ;er shu sha yu jiang shui 、jing liu zhi jian you chang ji ying xiang zuo yong 。(3)gou jian le shui sha dui jiang shui ji ge xiang shui tu bao chi cuo shi dong tai xiang ying mo xing ,jin yi bu ming que le nian jing liu liang 、shu sha liang 、jiang shui liang he shui tu bao chi cuo shi bao cun mian ji zhi jian de xiang ying guan ji 。yi jia lu he 、tu wei he liang liu yu ji yu nian jing liu liang 、nian shu sha liang 、nian jiang shui liang he nian mo shui tu bao chi cuo shi bao cun mian ji zong liang gou jian de VARmo xing jun tong guo ping wen xing jian yan ,ke jin hang hou xu fen xi 。ge lan jie yin guo jian yan biao ming :jiang shui he shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui jing liu 、shu sha cun zai chan xiang ying xiang ;tong shi jing liu he shu sha zhi jian hu wei ge lan jie yin guo guan ji ,er zhe hu xiang ying xiang ;jiang shui he shui tu bao chi cuo shi zhi jian mei you xiang guan guan ji 。mai chong xiang ying han shu ji suan jie guo biao ming :liang liu yu jiang shui he shui tu bao chi cuo shi dui jing liu 、shu sha de ying xiang cheng du bu yi zhi ,zai xiang ying jiang du shang ,tu wei he liu yu jing liu dui zi shen yi lai geng jiang ,dui yu jiang shui xiang ying bi jia lu he jiao ruo ,dui shui tu bao chi cuo shi xiang ying jiao jia lu he geng man 。fang cha fen jie xian shi :liang liu yu jing liu liang jian xiao shi shui tu bao chi cuo shi mian ji zeng jia 、dui de biao chi xu rao dong de jie guo ,er dui yu shu sha bian hua shi jing liu jian xiao zuo yong suo zhi 。(4)ji yu xiang liang zi hui gui VARmo xing jin yi bu fen xi nian jiang shui -jing liu -shu sha -ti tian -lin de -cao de -ba de -feng jin zhi jian de dong tai guan ji 。yi nian jiang shui liang 、nian jing liu liang 、nian shu sha liang 、ti tian mian ji 、lin de mian ji 、cao de mian ji 、ba de mian ji 、feng jin mian ji zuo wei biao zheng bian liang 。liang liu yu fen bie gou jian le jing liu -shu sha -jiang shui -ti tian -lin de -cao de -ba de -feng jin VARmo xing 。jia lu he liu yu jing liu -shu sha -jiang shui -ti tian -lin de -cao de -feng jin -ba de 8ge shi jian xu lie jian li VARmo xing wei tong guo chan wei te zheng gen jian yan ,shui ming suo jian VARbu ping wen ,mai chong xiang ying qu xian cheng fa san zhuang ,ye shui ming VARmo xing gu ji ji shu bu wen ding ,VARmo xing mo xiao 。tu wei he liu yu jing liu -shu sha -jiang shui -ti tian -lin de -cao de -feng jin -ba de 8ge shi jian xu lie jian li VARmo xing tong guo ping wen xing jian yan ,ke ji xu jin hang mai chong xiang ying he fang cha fen jie fen xi 。(5)mai chong xiang ying han shu fen xi tu wei he liu yu jing liu -shu sha -jiang shui -ti tian -lin de -cao de -ba de -feng jin zhi jian de dong tai guan ji 。jie guo biao ming :ti tian 、ba de dui jing liu 、shu sha de ying xiang ju you yi zhi xing ,jian shui you jian sha ;er lin de ji zeng jia jing liu you zeng jia shu sha ;cao de shui wen xiao ying jiao fu za ,duan ji nei zeng liu you jian sha ,er chang ji ze shi jian liu you zeng sha ;feng jin zeng liu you jian sha 。(6)ding liang yan jiu ge ying xiang yin zi dui jing liu 、shu sha bian hua de gong suo du 。tu wei he liu yu jing liu 、shu sha fang cha fen jie ke zhi ,bu kao lv nian jing liu de zi shen gong suo tiao jian xia ,ying xiang nian jing liu liang bian dong de ji ta bian liang de xiang dui gong suo cheng du yi ci wei :feng jin <cao de <lin de <ba de <shu sha <ti tian <jiang shui ,zhi hou 15ji nei ,feng jin 、cao de 、lin de 、ba de 、shu sha 、ti tian 、jiang shui dui jing liu bian dong de ping jun gong suo fen bie wei 1.35%、3.02%、8.02%、8.36%、9.87%、27.09%、42.36%。ying xiang nian shu sha liang bian dong de ji ta bian liang de xiang dui gong suo cheng du yi ci wei :cao de <ba de <feng jin <lin de <ti tian <jiang shui <jing liu ,zhi hou 15ji nei ,cao de 、ba de 、feng jin 、lin de 、ti tian 、jiang shui 、jing liu dui shu sha liang bian dong de ping jun gong suo fen bie wei 0.47%、1.36%、2.50%、3.86%、4.35%、12.95%。jie ge mai chong xiang ying han shu fen xi ,yan jiu ji nei jing liu liang de jian xiao shi shui tu bao chi cuo shi mian ji zeng jia 、dui de biao chi xu rao dong de jie guo ,er yan jiu ji nei shu sha liang de jian xiao zhu yao shi jing liu liang jian shao zuo yong suo zhi 。
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论文作者分别是来自西北农林科技大学的赵娟，发表于刊物西北农林科技大学2019-07-11论文，是一篇关于径流输沙论文,水土保持措施论文,模型论文,佳芦河流域论文,秃尾河流域论文,西北农林科技大学2019-07-11论文的文章。本文可供学术参考使用，各位学者可以免费参考阅读下载，文章观点不代表本站观点，资料来自西北农林科技大学2019-07-11论文网站，若本站收录的文献无意侵犯了您的著作版权，请联系我们删除。
标签：径流输沙论文; 水土保持措施论文; 模型论文; 佳芦河流域论文; 秃尾河流域论文; 西北农林科技大学2019-07-11论文;