我国新能源行业研究及投资机会分析

论文摘要

随着全球气候变化与不可再生化石能源储量急剧下降等问题的加剧,国际社会对节能减排已达成高度共识,新能源行业逐渐成为21世纪最具发展潜力的行业之一,其投资机会也持续受到投资者的关注。本文引入了一种行业研究与基本面评估模型相结合的自上而下的投资机会分析方法,旨在帮助投资者控制投资风险,获取超额收益。其中,行业研究部分以价值投资理念为指导,通过对我国新能源行业各细分产业的技术现状、产业链结构、下游需求与市场竞争程度的深入研究与比较,寻找中长期内最具盈利实现能力的新能源子行业及其产业环节;数量化评估模型部分首先选取了代表上市公司盈利能力、偿债能力、增长能力、经营效率等4方面的财务指标,以历史实证数据证明了基本面指标在中国A股市场和新能源行业中与下期收益存在显著相关性,之后将对收益显著相关的指标进行主成分分析,依据主成分方差解释比例构建综合评价指标。最后,以行业研究中选定的投资领域中的上市公司为待选标的,以基本面评估模型对公司投资价值进行评分与排序,在考虑了估值风险后,每期选择得分最高的10只公司作为建议投资组合。在此基础上,本文将建议投资组合样本外的市场表现与行业基准、市场基准分别进行了实证对比,投资组合市场累计收益分别超出新能源行业指数37%,超出沪深300指数60%,且推荐投资组合的拟夏普指数超过行业指数一倍以上,实证结果证明了行业研究与评价模型的有效性。本文有效地引入了一种结合定性行业研究和定量评价模型的选股方法,并在此方法下提出了指导新能源行业价值投资者的五条投资参考准则,旨在帮助投资者控制投资风险,获取超额收益。此方法具有综合性、可靠性、易操作性等优点。

论文目录

• Abstract
• 摘要
• 1 Introduction
• 1.1 Background and Motivation
• 1.2 Literature Review
• 1.2.1 Foreign Literature Review
• 1.2.2 Domestic Literature Review
• 1.3 Methodology and Purpose
• 2 Fundamental Research of China’s New Energy Industry
• 2.1 Macroeconomic Analysis of China
• 2.2 Mid Level Analysis of New Energy Industry
• 2.3 Photovoltaic Sector Research
• 2.3.1 Definitions and Current Development of Photovoltaic （PV） industry
• 2.3.2 Industrial Chains Break Down
• 2.3.3 Segments of Production Chain Analysis and Comparison
• 2.3.4 Segment Profitability Analysis—components manufacturing
• 2.3.5 Segment Profitability Analysis—packing and integration
• 2.3.6 Major Listed Companies and Their Investment Attractiveness Category
• 2.4 Wind Energy Sector Research
• 2.4.1 Definitions and Current Development of Wind Energy
• 2.4.2 Industrial Chain Break Down
• 2.4.3 Segment Profitability Analysis —mechanical components providers
• 2.4.4 Segment Profitability Analysis—wind turbines manufacturing
• 2.4.5 Segment Profitability Analysis—wind energy operators
• 2.4.6 Major Listed Companies and Their Investment Attractiveness Brief
• 2.5 New Energy-Vehicle Sector Research
• 2.5.1 Technological Classification of New Energy Vehicle （NEV）
• 2.5.2 Industrial Chains Break Down
• 2.5.3 Segment Profitability Analysis –Battery sector
• 2.5.4 Segment Profitability Analysis –Engine and electric controller system
• 2.5.5 Segment Profitability Analysis –Upstream raw materials
• 2.5.6 Segment Profitability Analysis –Charging station
• 2.5.7 Major Listed Companies and Their Investment Attractiveness Brief
• 3 Verification of Fundamental Links to Excess Return in China’s Security Market and New Energy Industry
• 3.1 Past accounting performance and future stock absolute return in the whole market
• 3.1.1 Data and sample
• 3.1.2 Model specification and regression method
• 3.1.3 Regression results
• 3.2 Past accounting performance and future excess return in the whole market
• 3.3 Past accounting performance and future excess return in new energy industry
• 3.3.1 Data and method
• 3.3.2 Regression results
• 3.3.3 Comparison of regression results in new energy industry and in the whole market
• 4 The Derivation and Application of Company Appraisal Model
• 4.1 The Theory and Application of Principal Components Analysis （PCA）
• 4.1.1 The Principles and Motivation of PCA
• 4.1.2 Methodology Overview
• 4.1.3 Empirical Test on Principal Components’Link to Return
• 4.1.4 Application of the Company Appraisal Model
• 4.2 Valuation and its influence on appraisal model
• 4.2.1 Valuation level, future excess return and accounting ratios
• 4.2.2 Adjustment for valuation factors
• 4.3 Out of Sample Empirical Test for the Model
• 5 Conclusion
• Bibliography
• Acknowledgments