本文主要研究内容
作者万凯迪（2019）在《经济波动下矿工生计脆弱性评估及降低策略研究》一文中研究指出：煤炭开采规模的不断扩大和煤炭产业的快速发展创造了大量就业岗位,目前就从业人数而言,煤炭产业已居中国41个工业大类之首。然而,由于矿工社会关系单一、技术专用性强、受教育程度低、健康状况不佳、容易产生悲观情绪等诸多原因,矿工的生计脆弱性问题十分突出。在煤价下跌等外部经济波动下,矿工原有的生计平衡遭受极大的破坏,从而容易引发严重的贫困问题,甚至会给矿区社会稳定带来重大冲击。因此,亟需开展有关如何减轻矿工生计风险,提高他们的生计能力,降低生计脆弱性,从而实现可持续生计的相关研究。但是从国内外现有研究成果来看,关于生计脆弱性评估方面的研究主要聚焦于气候变化、生态退化和流行疾病等外部风险对发展中国家生态脆弱地区农牧民生计脆弱性的影响,经济波动下煤炭产业矿工这一特殊社会群体的生计脆弱性问题尚未引起足够的重视,而关于矿工生计脆弱性降低策略的定量研究更是乏善可陈。鉴于此,本文在生计脆弱性概念界定的基础上,研究阐明经济波动下矿工生计脆弱性的响应机理,进而采用集成化的数据挖掘方法,建立基于粗糙集法—逼近于理想解的排序方法—秩和比法(RS-TOPSIS-RSR)的多准则综合评估模型,构建矿工生计脆弱性分层评估指标体系和矿工生计脆弱性综合指数(CMLVI),然后以我国33个典型煤炭城市为对象,实证测算我国典型煤炭城市矿工生计脆弱性水平,并分别计算各煤炭城市矿工在生境条件的敏感性(SEI)、社会层面的恢复力(RI)和个体层面的适应性(STI)上的脆弱性程度,解析近年来各煤炭城市矿工生计脆弱性的主要影响因素。在此基础上,本文对脆弱性降低策略进行有意义的探讨,根据各煤炭城市矿工生计脆弱性评估结果,并综合考虑地区经济发展水平等因素,选取中国最大的煤炭城市——鄂尔多斯市为对象构建包含煤炭产业、其他产业、社会支撑和矿工个体四大子系统的矿工生计脆弱性系统动力学模型,并对不同外部扰动和降低策略情景下矿工生计脆弱性变化情况进行模拟仿真,找出不同情境对矿工生计脆弱性的影响机理,然后对各外部扰动和生计脆弱性降低策略的累积效应进行分析,从短期和长期的角度对各策略的实施效果进行探讨。最后,基于上述研究结果,结合煤炭城市矿工生计状况的特殊性,本文以提升矿工生计资本为核心探索降低矿工生计脆弱性的有效途径,提出经济波动下降低矿工生计脆弱性的对策建议。本文的研究结论如下:就生计脆弱性评估而言,(1)从时间维度上来看,煤炭城市的矿工生计脆弱性随时间不断演化,即使同一城市四年的生计脆弱性也不尽相同。其中,攀枝花、咸阳、平顶山和三门峡四个城市的生计脆弱性逐年降低;而双鸭山、阳泉和大同三个城市的生计脆弱性逐渐升高。(2)从横向上比较,总体上徐州、淮北、泰安、济宁、枣庄和郑州这六个煤炭城市的CMLVI得分保持在较低水平。而曲靖和阳泉两个城市的CMLVI得分一直较高。根据地理分布分析可知,相对发达的中东地区的矿工生计脆弱性明显低于中国欠发达的西部和东北地区。(3)通过分析SEI、RI和STI可知,具有相同脆弱性的城市,其脆弱性模式可能不同。无论是低脆弱性、较高脆弱性还是高脆弱性,这种现象均普遍存在;而低脆弱性城市依旧可能在某一维度存在较高脆弱性,面临着一些亟需解决的严重问题。就生计脆弱性降低策略而言,(1)从历史仿真结果来看,2007-2017年鄂尔多斯矿工生计脆弱性呈现出先降后升再降的波动性特征,整体脆弱性水平相对较高。此外,矿工生计脆弱性水平与煤炭价格密切相关,整体呈现反向态势,这说明煤炭价格下跌会对矿工生计产生显著负效应。(2)尽管煤价下挫和去产能能够倒逼区域产业结构和矿工生计资本结构优化,但总体而言,都会对矿工生计带来显著负面影响,并且这种趋势随时间逐渐加深。此外,相较于去产能情景,煤价下挫对矿工生计的负面影响更大,会导致矿工生计脆弱性逐年升高。(3)不同矿工生计脆弱性降低策略的总体效果和累积效应存在显著差异。具体而言,相较于降低企业税率和费率,发展生活性服务业、增强金融服务水平和提升科教水平对生计脆弱性的降低效果更为显著。降低企业税率虽然可以在短期内快速降低矿工生计脆弱性,但是其有效性却呈递减趋势,而其他降低策略的累积效应则呈递增趋势。(4)不同策略对矿工生计的影响路径不同,这也是导致上述各项策略效果和效应差异的主要原因。
Abstract
mei tan kai cai gui mo de bu duan kuo da he mei tan chan ye de kuai su fa zhan chuang zao le da liang jiu ye gang wei ,mu qian jiu cong ye ren shu er yan ,mei tan chan ye yi ju zhong guo 41ge gong ye da lei zhi shou 。ran er ,you yu kuang gong she hui guan ji chan yi 、ji shu zhuan yong xing jiang 、shou jiao yo cheng du di 、jian kang zhuang kuang bu jia 、rong yi chan sheng bei guan qing xu deng zhu duo yuan yin ,kuang gong de sheng ji cui ruo xing wen ti shi fen tu chu 。zai mei jia xia die deng wai bu jing ji bo dong xia ,kuang gong yuan you de sheng ji ping heng zao shou ji da de po huai ,cong er rong yi yin fa yan chong de pin kun wen ti ,shen zhi hui gei kuang ou she hui wen ding dai lai chong da chong ji 。yin ci ,ji xu kai zhan you guan ru he jian qing kuang gong sheng ji feng xian ,di gao ta men de sheng ji neng li ,jiang di sheng ji cui ruo xing ,cong er shi xian ke chi xu sheng ji de xiang guan yan jiu 。dan shi cong guo nei wai xian you yan jiu cheng guo lai kan ,guan yu sheng ji cui ruo xing ping gu fang mian de yan jiu zhu yao ju jiao yu qi hou bian hua 、sheng tai tui hua he liu hang ji bing deng wai bu feng xian dui fa zhan zhong guo jia sheng tai cui ruo de ou nong mu min sheng ji cui ruo xing de ying xiang ,jing ji bo dong xia mei tan chan ye kuang gong zhe yi te shu she hui qun ti de sheng ji cui ruo xing wen ti shang wei yin qi zu gou de chong shi ,er guan yu kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing jiang di ce lve de ding liang yan jiu geng shi fa shan ke chen 。jian yu ci ,ben wen zai sheng ji cui ruo xing gai nian jie ding de ji chu shang ,yan jiu chan ming jing ji bo dong xia kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing de xiang ying ji li ,jin er cai yong ji cheng hua de shu ju wa jue fang fa ,jian li ji yu cu cao ji fa —bi jin yu li xiang jie de pai xu fang fa —zhi he bi fa (RS-TOPSIS-RSR)de duo zhun ze zeng ge ping gu mo xing ,gou jian kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing fen ceng ping gu zhi biao ti ji he kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing zeng ge zhi shu (CMLVI),ran hou yi wo guo 33ge dian xing mei tan cheng shi wei dui xiang ,shi zheng ce suan wo guo dian xing mei tan cheng shi kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing shui ping ,bing fen bie ji suan ge mei tan cheng shi kuang gong zai sheng jing tiao jian de min gan xing (SEI)、she hui ceng mian de hui fu li (RI)he ge ti ceng mian de kuo ying xing (STI)shang de cui ruo xing cheng du ,jie xi jin nian lai ge mei tan cheng shi kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing de zhu yao ying xiang yin su 。zai ci ji chu shang ,ben wen dui cui ruo xing jiang di ce lve jin hang you yi yi de tan tao ,gen ju ge mei tan cheng shi kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing ping gu jie guo ,bing zeng ge kao lv de ou jing ji fa zhan shui ping deng yin su ,shua qu zhong guo zui da de mei tan cheng shi ——e er duo si shi wei dui xiang gou jian bao han mei tan chan ye 、ji ta chan ye 、she hui zhi cheng he kuang gong ge ti si da zi ji tong de kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing ji tong dong li xue mo xing ,bing dui bu tong wai bu rao dong he jiang di ce lve qing jing xia kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing bian hua qing kuang jin hang mo ni fang zhen ,zhao chu bu tong qing jing dui kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing de ying xiang ji li ,ran hou dui ge wai bu rao dong he sheng ji cui ruo xing jiang di ce lve de lei ji xiao ying jin hang fen xi ,cong duan ji he chang ji de jiao du dui ge ce lve de shi shi xiao guo jin hang tan tao 。zui hou ,ji yu shang shu yan jiu jie guo ,jie ge mei tan cheng shi kuang gong sheng ji zhuang kuang de te shu xing ,ben wen yi di sheng kuang gong sheng ji zi ben wei he xin tan suo jiang di kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing de you xiao tu jing ,di chu jing ji bo dong xia jiang di kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing de dui ce jian yi 。ben wen de yan jiu jie lun ru xia :jiu sheng ji cui ruo xing ping gu er yan ,(1)cong shi jian wei du shang lai kan ,mei tan cheng shi de kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing sui shi jian bu duan yan hua ,ji shi tong yi cheng shi si nian de sheng ji cui ruo xing ye bu jin xiang tong 。ji zhong ,pan zhi hua 、xian yang 、ping ding shan he san men xia si ge cheng shi de sheng ji cui ruo xing zhu nian jiang di ;er shuang ya shan 、yang quan he da tong san ge cheng shi de sheng ji cui ruo xing zhu jian sheng gao 。(2)cong heng xiang shang bi jiao ,zong ti shang xu zhou 、huai bei 、tai an 、ji ning 、zao zhuang he zheng zhou zhe liu ge mei tan cheng shi de CMLVIde fen bao chi zai jiao di shui ping 。er qu jing he yang quan liang ge cheng shi de CMLVIde fen yi zhi jiao gao 。gen ju de li fen bu fen xi ke zhi ,xiang dui fa da de zhong dong de ou de kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing ming xian di yu zhong guo qian fa da de xi bu he dong bei de ou 。(3)tong guo fen xi SEI、RIhe STIke zhi ,ju you xiang tong cui ruo xing de cheng shi ,ji cui ruo xing mo shi ke neng bu tong 。mo lun shi di cui ruo xing 、jiao gao cui ruo xing hai shi gao cui ruo xing ,zhe chong xian xiang jun pu bian cun zai ;er di cui ruo xing cheng shi yi jiu ke neng zai mou yi wei du cun zai jiao gao cui ruo xing ,mian lin zhao yi xie ji xu jie jue de yan chong wen ti 。jiu sheng ji cui ruo xing jiang di ce lve er yan ,(1)cong li shi fang zhen jie guo lai kan ,2007-2017nian e er duo si kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing cheng xian chu xian jiang hou sheng zai jiang de bo dong xing te zheng ,zheng ti cui ruo xing shui ping xiang dui jiao gao 。ci wai ,kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing shui ping yu mei tan jia ge mi qie xiang guan ,zheng ti cheng xian fan xiang tai shi ,zhe shui ming mei tan jia ge xia die hui dui kuang gong sheng ji chan sheng xian zhe fu xiao ying 。(2)jin guan mei jia xia cuo he qu chan neng neng gou dao bi ou yu chan ye jie gou he kuang gong sheng ji zi ben jie gou you hua ,dan zong ti er yan ,dou hui dui kuang gong sheng ji dai lai xian zhe fu mian ying xiang ,bing ju zhe chong qu shi sui shi jian zhu jian jia shen 。ci wai ,xiang jiao yu qu chan neng qing jing ,mei jia xia cuo dui kuang gong sheng ji de fu mian ying xiang geng da ,hui dao zhi kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing zhu nian sheng gao 。(3)bu tong kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing jiang di ce lve de zong ti xiao guo he lei ji xiao ying cun zai xian zhe cha yi 。ju ti er yan ,xiang jiao yu jiang di qi ye shui lv he fei lv ,fa zhan sheng huo xing fu wu ye 、zeng jiang jin rong fu wu shui ping he di sheng ke jiao shui ping dui sheng ji cui ruo xing de jiang di xiao guo geng wei xian zhe 。jiang di qi ye shui lv sui ran ke yi zai duan ji nei kuai su jiang di kuang gong sheng ji cui ruo xing ,dan shi ji you xiao xing que cheng di jian qu shi ,er ji ta jiang di ce lve de lei ji xiao ying ze cheng di zeng qu shi 。(4)bu tong ce lve dui kuang gong sheng ji de ying xiang lu jing bu tong ,zhe ye shi dao zhi shang shu ge xiang ce lve xiao guo he xiao ying cha yi de zhu yao yuan yin 。
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论文作者分别是来自中国矿业大学的万凯迪，发表于刊物中国矿业大学2019-07-18论文，是一篇关于矿工论文,生计论文,脆弱性论文,多准则评估论文,政策模拟论文,系统动力学论文,中国矿业大学2019-07-18论文的文章。本文可供学术参考使用，各位学者可以免费参考阅读下载，文章观点不代表本站观点，资料来自中国矿业大学2019-07-18论文网站，若本站收录的文献无意侵犯了您的著作版权，请联系我们删除。
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