Sociopolitical Causes for Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka

论文摘要

中国和“亚洲虎”在和平的内外部环境下取得了快速的经济增长和较低的通货膨胀。受此启发,本文把社会政治稳定（和平）作为决定经济增长的一个关键因素,试图为将来形成一个新的增长理论建立一个基础。本文说明,在发展中国家,由于社会的、政治的或经济的等原因（如政治制度、领导、种族歧视、地区歧视、语言冲突和恐怖主义等等）所导致的社会政治不稳定对经济增长和通货膨胀具有不利的影响,这种情况在斯里兰卡尤为严重。本文使用定性和定量的研究方法对对斯里兰卡进行了个案研究,在控制了影响对经济增长和通货膨胀的重要因素,如物质和人力资本的积累以及货币供给之后,我们发现,社会政治不稳定对斯里兰卡的经济增长具有显著的负效应、对通货膨胀具有显著的正效应。本文使用70个发展中国家的横截面数据和稳定的得分指标来定量分析社会政治稳定对经济增长和通货膨胀的作用。结果显示,在发展中国家,社会政治不稳定对经济增长具有负面影响。西方学者认为,在发展中国家,民主是社会政治稳定的基础。而我们的结论认为,在发展中国家,民主对经济增长具有显著的负作用。本文定性地分析和解释了在斯里兰卡影响社会政治不稳定的各种社会、政治和经济因素。如内战、各种形式的宗教和地区歧视、没有远见的领导主导下的民主等。在第5章,同时,利用可获得的数据,本文的计量分析结果表明,在1978-2005年期间,斯里兰卡的内部冲突导致年度经济增长率平均低了5.23个百分点。本文的计量结果还显示,社会政治不稳定对通货膨胀的影响比对产出和货币供给更大。我们发现,尽管某些年份斯里兰卡政治不稳定与经济增长正相关,而与通货膨胀负相关,但是,这种正的经济增长和低的通货膨胀是以其它宏观经济目标为代价取得的。今后应该把社会政治稳定作为一种影响经济增长的重要因素而纳入经济增长模型。从政策上来说,在一个国家的初始发展阶段,应该象新加坡、中国、韩国和马来西亚等国一样,实行一党制,以保持社会政治稳定。因此,斯里兰卡应该建立一党制,消除国内种族歧视,从而达到国内的持久和平,促进长期的经济发展。

论文目录

• 摘要
• Abstract
• List of Tables
• List of Figures
• Chapter 1 Sociopolitical Causes for Economic Growth And Inflation: an Introduction
• 1.1 Background
• 1.2 Meaning and Conceptual Mechanism among the Variables
• 1.3 Statement of Problems
• 1.4 Objectives and Contents of Study
• 1.5 Contents of Study
• 1.6 Methodology
• 1.7 Rational and Contribution of Dissertation to Literature
• 1.8 Summary of Chapter
• Chapter 2 Literature Review
• 2.1 Theories for Macroeconomic Fluctuations
• 2.2 Theories for Economic Growth
• 2.3 Sociopolitical Causes for Economic Growth and Inflation
• 2.4 Summary of Chapter
• Chapter 3 Sociopolitical Causes for Growth and Inflation in Developing Countries: Cross - Country Analysi
• 3.1 Measures for Sociopolitical Instability in Cross Country Analysis
• 3.2 Sociopolitical Instability and Capital Accumulation
• 3.3 Sociopolitical Instability and Economic Growth
• 3.4 Sociopolitical Instability and Inflation
• 3.5 Summary of Chapter
• Chapter 4 Causes for Sociopolitical Instability in Srilanka
• 4.1 Historical Causes for Current Sociopolitical Instability
• 4.2 Discrimination and Sociopolitical Instability.
• 4.3 Social /Welfare Democracy and Sociopolitical Instability
• 4.4 Internal Colonization and Sociopolitical Instability
• 4.5 Language and Religious Causes for Sociopolitical Instability
• 4.6 Sporadic and Systematic Anti-Tamil Violence for Instability
• 4.7 Broken Singhalese–Tamil Pacts as Cause for Sociopolitical Instability
• 4.8 Terrorism and Sociopolitical Instability
• 4.9 Measurement of Overall Sociopolitical Instability in Sri Lanka
• 4.10 Summary of Chapter
• Chapter 5 Sociopolitical Instability and Economic Growth in Srilanka: Time Series Analysis
• 5.1 Trends of Economic Growth and Sociopolitical Instability
• 5.2 Sociopolitical Instability and Physical Capital Accumulation
• 5.3 Sociopolitical Instability and Human Capital Accumulation
• 5.4 Sociopolitical Instability and Economic Growth
• 5.5 Summary of Chapter
• Chapter 6 Sociopolitical Instability and Inflation in Sri Lanka:Time Series Analysis
• 6.1 Trends of Inflation and Sociopolitical Instability in Sri Lanka
• 6.2 Sociopolitical Instability and Fiscal Deficit and Money Supply
• 6.3 Sociopolitical Instability and Depreciation of Rupee
• 6.4 Sociopolitical Instability and Inflation.
• 6.5 Summary of Chapter
• Chapter 7 Sociopolitical Instability and Macroeconomic Instability in Sri Lanka
• 7.1 Sociopolitical Instability and Macroeconomic Instability
• 7.2 Trends of Sociopolitical Instability and Macroeconomic Instability
• 7.3 Government’s Instability and Macroeconomic Instability
• 7.4 Leadership Quality and Macroeconomic Stability
• 7.5 Democracy and Macroeconomic Stability
• 7.6 Summary of Chapter
• Chapter 8 Conclusion and Recommendations
• 8.1 Conclusion
• 8.2 Recommendations
• 8.3 Innovation Point
• 8.4 Limitations
• 8.5 Recommendation for Further Research
• 8.6 Summery of Chapter
• Acknowledgement
• BIBLIOGRAPHY
• List of Publication during PhD Program
• List of Publication in Past （Native Language）
• Appendix