对上海房屋市场的泡沫测试

论文摘要

这篇论文通过鉴定由于基础成分和投机成分所导致的价格变动来研究上海的房屋价格泡沫程度,同时使用时序-截面数据的回归分析。这篇论文首先将介绍中国房地产业的发展过程和经济泡沫的背景,其次先前及近来的有关上海房屋价格泡沫的调研将会被呈现。紧接的便是通过使用统计学模型对上海房屋价格泡沫所进行的讨论。结果显示在2004年和2007年的房屋市场中存在严重的价格泡沫。最后,一些政策的暗示也将会被展现。

论文目录

• Abstract（English）
• Abstract（Chinese）
• List of Tables
• List of Figures
• Chapter 1 Background
• 1.1. Real estate
• 1.2 The development of China housing market
• 1.2.1 Distribution phase（1945～early 1980s）
• 1.2.2 Transition phase.（Early 1980s～1998）
• 1.2.3 Rapid expanding phase（1998～present）
• 1.3 China and other nations'housing price development in recent years
• 1.4 China's current real estate industry
• 1.5 Overview of the housing market in Shanghai
• Chapter 2 Economic bubble and speculation
• 2.1. Economic bubble & speculation
• 2.2. Japanese asset price bubble
• Chapter 3 Indicators to measure Shanghai housing market
• 3.1. Housing market indicators
• 3.2. Housing affordability measure
• 3.3. Housing price appreciation to GDP（per capita）growth ratio
• 3.4. Housing financing indicators
• Chapter 4 Previous studies on housing price bubble modeling
• 4.1. Abraham and Hendershott's equilibrium price model
• 4.2. Malpezzi's simple error correction model
• 4.3. Himmelberg's user cost model
• Chapter 5 Modeling issue and empirical test
• 5.1. The model
• 5.2. Empirical test
• 5.3. Implications of test result
• Chapter 6 Policy Implications
• 6.1. Mechanism of bubble accumulation
• 6.2. Measures to counter speculations
• 6.3. Strengthening banking regulation
• 6.4. Expanding economic housing supply
• 6.5. Measure to counter inadequate data and weak analysis
• Chapter 7 Conclusion
• References