核不扩散：9/11后美国核战略的调整

论文摘要

冷战结束后,美国认为来自苏联的核威胁减小,因此,在相当长的时间内,冷战时期制定的核战略即威慑战略没有发生变化。然而,9/11恐怖袭击迫使美国重新审视当前的国际安全环境,认为威慑已经不能够完全反映这一时期的国际环境,因此对核战略做出了调整。在这一背景下,本文分析并论证了美国对其核战略做出的重大调整,即将重点放在了核不扩散这一领域。而布什总统发起的《反扩散安全倡议》也反映了为符合美国的安全利益和反恐战争的需要,美国期望并谋求建立新的核不扩散机制。而伊朗和朝鲜目前的核危机作为两个案例证明了美国在防止核不扩散领域的坚强决心。

论文目录

• Abstract
• 中文摘要
• Acknowledgements
• Chapter Ⅰ Introduction
• 1.1 Deterrence
• 1.1.1 Definition
• 1.1.2 Massive Retaliation and Assured Destruction
• 1.1.3 Effectiveness of Deterrence
• 1.2 Deterrence Losing Credit
• 1.2.1 New Security Environment
• 1.2.2 Changed Nature of US’s Enemies
• 1.2.3 Changed Strategic Targets
• 1.2.3.1 Diminution of the Russian Threat
• 1.2.3.2 Rise of Threat of “Rogue States”and Terrorists
• 1.3 “A Time of Opportunity for America”
• Chapter Ⅱ Adjustment of Nuclear Strategy
• 2.1 The Adjustment
• 2.1.1 “Unanticipated Challenges”
• 2.1.2 Nonproliferation vs. Terrorism Plus Destructive Technology
• 2.1.3 Reasons
• 2.2 Counterproliferation Efforts
• 2.2.1 Denial Strategy
• 2.2.2 Counterproliferation Measures
• Chapter Ⅲ Proliferation Security Initiative
• 3.1 What is the Proliferation Security Initiative?
• 3.2 Why?
• 3.3 How?
• 3.4 Debates on PSI
• 3.4.1 Efficacy
• 3.4.2 Legality
• 3.4.2.1 Legality of Intercept Operations
• 3.4.2.2 Legality of PSI
• 3.5 Part of a Broader Strategy
• Chapter Ⅳ Two Crises
• 4.1 Iran’s Nuclear Crisis
• 4.1.1 A Historical Overview
• 4.1.1.1 Clinton Administration
• 4.1.1.2 Bush Administration
• 4.1.2 Iran’s Rationale
• 4.1.3 Hard Line Approach of the Bush Administration
• 4.2 Nuclear Crisis under the Korean Peninsula
• 4.2.1 The First Nuclear Crisis
• 4.2.2 The Second Nuclear Crisis
• 4.3 Similarities and Differences in Handling the Two Crises
• 4.3.1 Similarities
• 4.3.2 Differences
• Chapter Ⅴ Conclusion
• Bibliography